October 2025 - World Series Analysis
October baseball has been an Under bettor's paradise. Postseason totals are hitting the Under at a 56.8% clip across 118 games, producing a +12.4% ROI. World Series Game 2 specifically has gone Under in 11 of the last 14 matchups since 2011.
Target World Series Game 2 Under 8 (-137). Both starters own sub-2.00 postseason ERAs. Toronto's bullpen threw 5.1 innings in Game 1, meaning their high-leverage arms are working on short rest. Temperature at Rogers Centre forecast at 62°F at first pitch, suppressing power potential.
When a home team loses by 5+ runs in the opening game of a postseason series, the public overreacts. Books adjust lines to capture momentum betting, creating value on the team that just got embarrassed at home.
This trend does NOT apply to World Series Game 2 because the Dodgers were the road team that lost. However, it's worth monitoring for future series where a home team gets blown out in Game 1. Historical 89-67 record (57.1%) with +18.3% ROI makes this one of the most profitable situational angles in October baseball.
Conventional wisdom says elite teams bounce back after blowout losses. The numbers say otherwise when they're favored on the road. This situational angle has been a consistent money-burner for public bettors.
While this trend historically fades road favorites after blowouts, World Series Game 2 features a significant pitching upgrade (Yamamoto vs Gausman) that overrides the situational pattern. The Dodgers' -141 line reflects legitimate talent differential rather than public overreaction. This is why sharp bettors analyze each game individually rather than blindly following trends.
Power pitchers who live at the top of the zone see measurable performance improvements in domed stadiums. Rogers Centre's controlled environment eliminates wind variables that can affect elevated fastballs.
Yamamoto's elite fastball command (+6 inches of induced vertical break) thrives in Rogers Centre's controlled conditions. His four starts in domed stadiums this season produced a 2.12 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 25.1 innings. The Under 8 becomes even more attractive when factoring in venue-specific pitcher performance.