Spring training is where sharp bettors separate themselves from the public. While casual fans are watching exhibition box scores and counting nothing, the smart money is dissecting every nugget of information coming out of camps in Florida and Arizona, recalibrating futures positions before the market catches up. And right now, three major developments are screaming for attention from anyone serious about MLB futures heading into 2026.
Let's break down what the sharpest eyes in the market are watching, and where the value is hiding.
Aaron Judge is fully cleared for spring training, and that alone should move the needle on Yankees futures. The flexor strain in his right elbow that nagged him late in the 2025 season healed on its own without surgery. The MRI came back clean, and Judge himself put it plainly: "I haven't had any issues so far... I'm throwing out there confident, thrown to the bases a couple times already. No worries." That's the kind of definitive, no-hedging language that makes a sharp bettor's ears perk up. He's not managing it. He's not rehabbing through it. It's done.
Here's why this matters for the betting market. Judge's health has always been the single biggest variable in New York's season-long outlook. When he's right, he's the most dangerous hitter in baseball, a player who warps opposing pitching game plans just by standing in the box. When he's not, the Yankees' lineup has a gaping hole that no amount of depth can fill. The fact that he's scheduled to play in four or five of the first nine Grapefruit League games tells you the Yankees feel genuinely good about where he is physically. They're not babying him. They're ramping him up on a normal timeline.
But here's the wrinkle that sharps are already pricing in, and the public is ignoring entirely. Judge is leaving camp on March 1 to join Team USA for the World Baseball Classic. That's additional wear on a body that has historically battled durability concerns. The WBC is competitive, high-intensity baseball in March, when players are still building up their workloads. If you're looking at Yankees season win totals or AL pennant futures, you need to factor in the possibility that Judge comes back from the WBC a step behind in his spring preparation, or worse, picks up a nagging issue playing meaningful games before his body is fully ready. It doesn't kill the value on New York, but it's a variable that the public will completely sleep on. Smart money accounts for it.
If you've been waiting for Dodgers rotation futures to dip before jumping in, your window might be closing. Roki Sasaki is working on developing a legitimate third pitch this spring, and if it clicks, it transforms him from an exciting but limited arm into an absolute frontline monster.
The scouting report on Sasaki has always been honest about his limitations. Electric fastball, devastating splitter, but only two pitches. That's a problem for a starter who needs to navigate a lineup three times through the order. Without a reliable third offering, Sasaki fell behind hitters too often and was forced back to the fastball when he couldn't put guys away. That pattern led to longer innings, elevated pitch counts, and shorter outings than you want from a guy you're counting on to anchor a playoff rotation.
Now he's actively throwing cutters and sliders in camp, with a specific emphasis on what he calls the "gyro-spin slider." He's also incorporating a two-seamer to give hitters a different look off his fastball. The Dodgers' coaching staff knows his raw stuff is electric. They're not trying to reinvent him. They just need him to have one more weapon he can throw in any count, and everything changes.
The betting implication is straightforward. If even one of these pitches develops into something he trusts when he's behind in the count, Sasaki goes from a guy who might give you five or six strong innings to someone who can dominate through seven or eight. For a Dodgers team already loaded with pitching talent, adding another genuine frontline starter who can eat innings shifts their World Series odds in a meaningful way. The market will adjust as spring training results become visible, so if you believe in the talent and the coaching, the time to position yourself on Dodgers futures is before the hype machine kicks into full gear.
While the Yankees and Dodgers are getting encouraging news, Atlanta's spring training has been a slow-motion disaster for anyone holding Braves futures tickets. And if you're not short on Atlanta yet, you need to be paying very close attention to what's happening in their pitching camp.
Spencer Schwellenbach, who was expected to be a meaningful rotation piece in 2026, has already landed on the 60-day injured list with right elbow inflammation. That's not a two-week setback. That's a minimum of two months before he's even eligible to return, and elbow inflammation in a young pitcher is the kind of thing that tends to linger well beyond the initial timeline. The Braves were counting on him to take the ball every fifth day, and now that slot is a question mark deep into May at the earliest.
Then there's Hurston Waldrep. Manager Walt Weiss revealed that Waldrep may need surgery to remove "loose bodies" found in his arm. The one piece of good news is that the MRI showed no ligament damage, so this isn't a Tommy John situation. Waldrep is scheduled to meet with Dr. Keith Meister for a final evaluation. But even in the best-case scenario where the surgery is minor and recovery is relatively quick, you're looking at a young pitcher who's going to be behind schedule entering the regular season, coming off a procedure, and needing time to rebuild his arm strength and get stretched out. That's not a guy you're penciling into your April rotation.
From a betting perspective, losing two rotation pieces before camp even gets rolling is devastating for Atlanta's outlook. The Braves were already facing questions about their pitching depth heading into 2026, and now they're scrambling to fill holes with arms that weren't part of the original plan. Emergency rotation patches rarely perform at the level of the guys they're replacing. That's a recipe for a slow start that digs a hole in the division race, and it means their World Series futures are carrying significantly more risk than the current prices reflect.
Sharp money is fading Atlanta's World Series number right now, and the reasoning is sound. You can't win a championship in October if your rotation is being held together with duct tape and prayers in April. The time to sell is before the broader market fully absorbs just how thin this pitching staff has gotten.
One more note worth filing away for futures bettors. A.J. Preller has agreed to a multiyear extension as president of baseball operations with the Padres. That matters because Preller is one of the most aggressive dealmakers in baseball. His extension signals organizational commitment to competing right now, which means if San Diego is anywhere near contention at the trade deadline, expect Preller to be the most active buyer in the league. Keep the Padres on your futures watchlist as a team whose ceiling could rise dramatically at midseason.
Spring training information is noisy, and most of it is meaningless exhibition noise. But these three storylines, Judge's health combined with the WBC variable, Sasaki's pitch development in Los Angeles, and Atlanta's crumbling rotation, are the kind of real, actionable data points that move futures markets. The public won't process this information for weeks. Sharps are already adjusting their positions. The question is whether you're moving with the smart money or waiting until the prices have already shifted against you.