⚾ Yankees vs Giants — Oracle Park, 8:05 PM ET, Netflix
SP: Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA in 2025) vs Logan Webb (15-W, 3.22 ERA, 2.56 FIP in 2025). Two elite arms in a pitcher-friendly park. This screams low-scoring.
Yankees are 7-2 to the under in their last 9 road openers. Webb posted a 3.10 ERA at Oracle Park in 19 home starts last season with 126 K in 116 IP. The man owns that mound.
Quick Data Sheet
| Fried 2025 ERA | 2.86 |
| Fried 2025 FIP | 3.07 |
| Webb 2025 ERA | 3.22 |
| Webb 2025 FIP | 2.56 |
| Webb Home ERA (19 GS) | 3.10 |
| Webb Home K (116 IP) | 126 |
| NYY Road Opener U Trend | 7-2 Under (Last 9) |
| Oracle Park HR Factor | 76 (24% below avg) |
Opening Day Historical Trends
Opening Day unders have historically hit at higher rates due to rust, cold weather, and cautious early-season bullpen management. Hitters are still calibrating timing off live pitching.
Oracle Park HR factor of 76 is 24% below league average. This is one of the toughest home run environments in baseball, and that suppression gets amplified in March with heavier air and wind blowing in off McCovey Cove.
Yankees Opening Day road pitching record is 28-27 historically. Close to a coin flip, meaning the starting pitching matchup matters more than the brand name tonight.
Both starting pitchers had sub-3.10 FIP in 2025 (Fried 3.07, Webb 2.56). When two aces with elite FIPs match up on Opening Day, the under has historically been the sharp side.
The Bottom Line
Everything points the same direction here. Two front-line starters with elite 2025 numbers, a ballpark that eats home runs for breakfast, Opening Day rust at the plate, and a Yankees road opener under trend that has cashed at a 78% clip. The data is loud.