Both Tickets Chase The Last Wild Card Spot

There's one American League wild card spot that's still up for grabs, and tonight's card has money on both teams fighting over it. Cleveland Guardians moneyline at -152 for 2 units and Toronto Blue Jays moneyline at -138 for 1.5 units. They don't play each other. They don't have to. With twelve games left for both clubs, every night is a head to head race run in two different ballparks, and Monday's matchups happen to lean the same direction in both of them.

THE CARD

White Sox vs Guardians Moneyline Pick

Tigers vs Blue Jays Moneyline Pick

Both prices are the prices taken and both unit figures are to win. Together they risk 5.11 units to win 3.5. Cleveland needs 60.32 percent at -152 and Toronto needs 57.98 percent at -138. If both cash it's +3.5. A Cleveland win with a Toronto loss is basically flat at -0.07. The other split, Toronto wins and Cleveland doesn't, costs -1.54, and a double loss is the whole -5.11.

WHERE THE RACE STANDS THIS MORNING

The Yankees and Red Sox hold the first two wild card spots, sitting 10.5 and 6 games clear of the cut. The fight is for the third one. Cleveland's 76 and 74 and holds it. Toronto's 75 and 75, one game back. Texas is 74 and 76, two back. Minnesota and Detroit are both 5.5 out, which is too far with twelve to play.

Here's the wrinkle that makes Toronto dangerous. The Blue Jays won the season series from Cleveland four games to two, including an 11 to 0 blowout at Progressive Field on September 2. If these two finish tied, that head to head record is the first thing that breaks it. So Cleveland's one game cushion comes with no tiebreaker behind it, and the Guardians know it.

And Cleveland isn't only playing for a wild card. The White Sox are 76 and 73 and lead the Central by a half game, so tonight's opener of a three game set is a straight fight for first place. A Guardians win puts them on top of the division for the night.

WHAT'S LEFT ON THE SCHEDULE

Cleveland: three with the White Sox at home, three with the Athletics, three with the Red Sox, three with the Royals. Six at home, six away.
Toronto: three with Detroit at home, three with Texas, three with Baltimore, three with Cincinnati. Six at home, six away.
Texas: nine of its last twelve at home, including three with Toronto.

Neither schedule is soft at the front, and that's what makes tonight matter. Cleveland opens with the division leader. Toronto opens with a Detroit team that's won four straight.

CLEVELAND: A STARTER AGAINST A BULLPEN

Gavin Williams is the whole reason this is a 2 unit ticket. He's 13 and 7 with a 3.78 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 228 strikeouts in 169 innings. At home he's been a different pitcher, a 3.01 ERA with 134 strikeouts in 95.2 innings. His last two starts, both at Progressive Field, went 7 innings without an earned run and struck out 13 against Toronto and 6 innings of two run ball with 11 against Detroit. Cleveland is 18 and 11 when he starts.

Chicago's listed starter is Sean Newcomb, and it's a label more than a plan. He's appeared in 54 games and started 5, and none of those starts lasted longer than 3 innings. He opened in St. Louis on Saturday and got four outs. Newcomb's been good in his role, a 2.77 ERA across 84.1 innings, but the White Sox are going to need a lot of bullpen arms to cover nine innings, and they're 3 and 7 in their last ten.

Let's be straight about the problems with this ticket. Cleveland is 36 and 39 at home, a losing record in its own park. It's hit .226 with a .659 OPS against left handers, and Newcomb throws left handed. And Chicago's taken 6 of 10 from Cleveland this season. What tips it is the length gap. Williams can give Cleveland six or seven innings. Chicago's plan leans on the bullpen from the first inning.

TORONTO: A HOT ERA THAT'S COOLING

Troy Melton owns a 2.42 ERA over 108 innings, and if you stop there, Toronto at -138 looks like a stretch. Don't stop there. Over his last four starts Melton's allowed 15 earned runs in 23.2 innings and struck out only 14. Minnesota scored 15 on Detroit in one of them. Detroit's 31 and 43 on the road, and even through the four game win streak, that road record is a real weight.

José Soriano came to Toronto from the Angels, and his Blue Jays line is a 4.05 ERA across 40 innings. That's not why this ticket exists. What matters more is that Toronto's 6 and 1 in his seven starts, he's gone seven innings twice in his last three, and his season ERA across both clubs is 3.48 over 163 innings. The Jays are also coming off 15 runs in two wins over Baltimore at Rogers Centre.

WHAT WOULD MAKE THIS A BAD NIGHT

The ugly outcome is the obvious one: both teams lose, and 5.11 units go out the door while Texas creeps closer. The Cleveland side carries more of that risk, and the honest reason is its home record. A team that's 36 and 39 in its own building shouldn't be treated like a lock at -152 just because its starter's better.

The quieter danger is Melton. Four bad starts don't erase 108 innings of a 2.42 ERA. If he gets back to the version that went 20 straight innings without allowing an earned run across three starts in late July and early August, Toronto's offense is going to have a long night.