Six Tickets, Six Pitching Questions

Six tickets on Friday, 17.16 units at risk to win 11.5, and every one of them is really a question about a pitcher. The biggest is Guardians -1 at -180 for 3 units against an Athletics starter carrying a 7.08 ERA. Then Blue Jays ML -132 behind Dylan Cease, Yankees ML -110 with Gerrit Cole against Eduardo Rodriguez, Mariners ML -181 with Bryan Woo at Coors Field, and two team total unders, Royals under 3.5 at -125 against Paul Skenes and Braves under 4.5 at -139 against Peter Lambert. Here's the case for each one, and the numbers that argue back, because a few of them argue hard.

WHAT EACH TICKET REALLY RISKS

Every unit figure is to win, so the risk moves with the price. The Guardians line is a whole number: a two run win or better cashes, a one run win hands the stake back, a loss loses it.

Stake	Pick	Price	Risk	To Win	Break Even
3u	Cleveland Guardians -1 (vs Athletics)	-180	5.40	3.00	64.29% of decided bets
1.5u	Toronto Blue Jays ML (at Rangers)	-132	1.98	1.50	56.90%
1.5u	Kansas City Royals Team Total Under 3.5 (at Pirates)	-125	1.88	1.50	55.56%
1.5u	Atlanta Braves Team Total Under 4.5 (at Astros)	-139	2.09	1.50	58.16%
2u	New York Yankees ML (at Diamondbacks)	-110	2.20	2.00	52.38%
2u	Seattle Mariners ML (at Rockies)	-181	3.62	2.00	64.41%
	Card total		17.16	11.50

Cleveland is almost a third of the money on the card, and the two big favorites, Cleveland and Seattle, are more than half of it. Lose the Guardians ticket and the other five have to go 5 and 0 to come out 3.1 units ahead, which tells you where the day is won or lost.

GUARDIANS -1: THE STARTER IS THE WHOLE ARGUMENT

Mason Barnett takes the ball for the Athletics with a 7.08 ERA over 40.2 innings, 12 home runs allowed, 5.31 walks per nine and 2.66 homers per nine. He's made four big league starts this year and the A's lost all four, by scores of 5 to 4, 6 to 5, 12 to 4 and 9 to 5. His last one was August 17 in Kansas City, where he got eight outs and gave up six runs. The A's are 61 and 92, they've lost three straight in Tampa, the last of them 10 to 1 on Thursday, and they've allowed 5.72 runs a game this season. On the road they hit .657 in OPS and score 3.76 a night.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has something to play for. The Guardians are 78 and 75, tied with the White Sox on top of the AL Central, winners of two straight and 6 and 4 over their last ten. They took two of three from the A's in May, 8 to 5 and 14 to 6 before a 7 to 1 loss.

What pushes back. Cleveland's listed starter is Daniel Espino, and he isn't a starter in any normal sense. He's pitched in 11 games, started one, and that start lasted two innings. His numbers are loud, 21 strikeouts in 12.1 innings, but this is a bullpen night for Cleveland, and the last time out he gave up a homer to the White Sox and got one out. The bigger problem is the margin. The Guardians are only 38 and 40 at home, and they've won at Progressive Field by two runs or more just 24 times in 78 games. Fourteen more home wins came by exactly one run, which on this ticket is a refund. Cleveland's offense, a .689 OPS and 4.09 runs a game at home, isn't built to run up scores. The A's, for their part, have lost by two or more in 30 of 78 road games. This bet is a wager that Barnett is the version the A's have seen all year, and that's a fair thing to believe. It isn't a sure thing at -180.

BLUE JAYS ML: DYLAN CEASE ON THE ROAD

This is the cleanest pitching edge on the card. Cease is 11 and 5 with a 2.38 ERA, 236 strikeouts in 166.1 innings and 12.77 per nine. On the road he's been better still: a 1.89 ERA in 13 starts with a .470 OPS against. Toronto is 18 and 10 when he starts. Kumar Rocker, across from him, is 5 and 11 with a 4.54 ERA and a 5.02 ERA in 15 home starts, and left handed hitters have an .835 OPS against him. Texas is 11 and 14 in his starts. Both teams sit at 76 and 77, two games out of the last wild card spot, so nobody's coasting.

What pushes back. Texas swept four from Toronto in June, and one of those was a Cease start the Rangers won 7 to 4. The Rangers are 42 and 33 at Globe Life Field and one game behind Houston in the West, while Toronto is 36 and 39 on the road and 4 and 6 over its last ten. And Cease walks people, 3.90 per nine, including five Orioles in his last start. At -132 you need Toronto about 57 times in 100. With Cease's road line, that's a price you can live with.

YANKEES ML: PAYING ALMOST NOTHING FOR THE BETTER TEAM

On paper Rodriguez is the better pitcher tonight. He's 15 and 6 with a 2.62 ERA over 178.1 innings and Arizona is 22 and 8 in his starts. So why the Yankees at -110? Because the team around the pitcher is where the gap lives. New York is 88 and 64 with a +136 run differential, 46 and 32 on the road, and allows 3.37 runs a game away from home. The Yankees hit left handed pitching better than right handed, a .739 OPS against lefties, and Arizona hits righties worse than lefties, a .689 OPS against them, which is what Cole throws. Cole also doesn't beat himself: 1.72 walks per nine. Rodriguez's last start went 5.1 innings with six runs, three earned, against Texas.

What pushes back. Cole's been hit hard lately. He's given up seven home runs across his last two starts, four in San Diego and three in a 12 to 2 loss to the Mets, and his 1.56 homers per nine for the season is a real number. Arizona is 43 and 35 at Chase Field, four games out of a wild card spot, and has lost two straight. You're getting a coin flip price on a team with the better roster and a pitcher who needs to keep the ball in the park.

MARINERS ML: BRYAN WOO AGAINST A TEAM THAT'S 1 AND 9

Colorado is 56 and 97, 1 and 9 over its last ten, 31 and 44 at home, and has allowed 894 runs, 5.84 a game. Road teams have won 44 of 75 games at Coors Field this year. Bryan Woo brings a 3.88 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and 163 strikeouts against 35 walks in 162.1 innings, and he's rolling: eight scoreless innings against the A's on September 6, then six more against them with one unearned run. The Rockies hadn't named a starter when we checked the MLB schedule Friday morning.

What pushes back. The price and the split. At -181 Seattle has to win about 64 times in 100, and road teams at Coors have won 58.7 percent. Woo is two different pitchers this year: a 2.36 ERA at home and a 5.23 ERA in 16 road starts, with a .754 OPS against away from Seattle. The Mariners are 71 and 82 and 31 and 47 on the road, and visitors score 6.27 runs a game at Coors, which means Seattle's bullpen will be tested too. This is a bet on a bad team staying bad, which it has been, at a price that leaves very little room.

ROYALS UNDER 3.5: A BAD ROAD OFFENSE AGAINST SKENES

Kansas City is 28 and 50 on the road. It scores 3.59 runs a game away from home with a .661 OPS, and it's been held to three or fewer in 48 of 78 road games, 61.5 percent, against a break even of 55.56. The last six road games went 3, 1, 1, 2, 5 and 2. Paul Skenes is on the mound for Pittsburgh: 3.78 ERA, 185 strikeouts in 162 innings, 10.28 per nine, 3.70 at home. He threw 5.1 innings without allowing a run against the Angels on September 6 and gave up two in seven innings at Wrigley his last time out.

What pushes back. Pittsburgh's bullpen. Opponents scored three or fewer in only 11 of Skenes' 30 starts, because the game doesn't end when he leaves. The Pirates allow 4.61 runs a game, and on September 1 they won a 13 to 12 game he started. That's the risk on this ticket: Skenes can do his job for five or six innings and the under can still die in the eighth.

BRAVES UNDER 4.5: PETER LAMBERT AT HOME

Lambert is 8 and 9 with a 3.71 ERA and a .649 OPS against over 145.2 innings. Opponents have scored four or fewer in 17 of his 26 starts, 65.4 percent, against a break even of 58.16. He's gone six and seven innings in his last two, three runs each time. Atlanta scores 4.37 a game on the road and has stayed at four or fewer in 45 of 75 road games, and the Braves are 4 and 6 over their last ten.

What pushes back. Atlanta is still a good offense, 89 and 64 and a .735 OPS against right handed pitching, and Lambert's home ERA, 4.03, is worse than his road number. He also has a nine run disaster against the Angels on August 20 in his recent log. The 4.5 number gives a little cushion that 3.5 wouldn't, and that's the reason this one is the under we'd trust more of the two.

THE DAY IN ONE LINE

First pitches, all Pacific: Royals at Pirates 3:40 PM, Athletics at Guardians 4:10 PM, Blue Jays at Rangers 5:05 PM, Braves at Astros 5:10 PM, Mariners at Rockies 5:10 PM, Yankees at Diamondbacks 6:40 PM. If Barnett pitches like Barnett has pitched, the card has its anchor early. If he doesn't, Cease, Woo and the Yankees have to carry it. Track every result on the BetLegend TrustMyRecord profile, where the picks are graded in public.