Friday Card
April 17, 2026
Friday slate · 4 props posted
Graded Loss · 4 first-inning runs
New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs · First Inning Runs
Mets vs Cubs
NRFI Prop
No Run First Inning
+105 (MGM) · 1 Unit
This is the only Friday first-inning play that still cleared our official threshold after quality and price filters. The model makes NRFI 51.21% while the +105 number only needs 48.78%, even with the game carrying a full total of 10.
Graded Win · Littell finished with 4 Ks
San Francisco Giants · Starting Pitcher
Zack Littell
Strikeout Prop
Over 3.5 Strikeouts
+134 (FanDuel) · 1 Unit
Littell is the strongest plus-money strikeout over on the April 17 board once the thin-sample plays are removed. The model projects 4.34 strikeouts with a 62.93% hit rate, while FanDuel is still paying +134 on a line of just 3.5.
Graded Loss · Wacha recorded 18 outs
Kansas City Royals · Starting Pitcher
Michael Wacha
Pitching Outs Prop
Under 17.5 Outs
-133 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
The pitcher-outs model lands Wacha at 14.56 outs and gives the under a 78.21% hit rate. That leaves nearly a full inning of cushion against the posted 17.5 outs line, with stronger sample support than most of Friday's board.
Graded Loss · Bassitt finished with 2 Ks
Baltimore Orioles · Starting Pitcher
Chris Bassitt
Strikeout Prop
Over 3.5 Strikeouts
-139 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Bassitt projects for 5.13 strikeouts and still only needs four to cash. The line is low, the sample size sits at 30 starts, and the model grades the over at 75.19% against a market sitting much closer to break-even.
Thursday slate
April 16, 2026
Thursday slate · 4 props posted
LOSS · 18 Outs (6.0 IP) · -1.00u
Cincinnati Reds · Starting Pitcher
Chase Burns
Pitching Outs Prop
Under 16.5 Outs
-125 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Graded loss. Burns worked 6.0 innings and finished with 18 outs, clearing the 16.5 line by one out. The pregame edge did not survive a highly efficient 87-pitch outing.
LOSS · 15 Outs (5.0 IP) · -1.00u
Athletics · Starting Pitcher
Jacob Lopez
Pitching Outs Prop
Over 15.5 Outs
+109 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Graded loss. Lopez finished with 15 outs over 5.0 innings, one out short of the over cash. He struck out five but the outing ended before he could reach the sixth.
LOSS · 6 K (6.0 IP) · -1.00u
San Francisco Giants · Starting Pitcher
Landen Roupp
Strikeout Prop
Under 5.5 Strikeouts
-108 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Graded loss. Roupp reached 6 strikeouts in 6.0 innings, getting over the 5.5 number by the narrowest possible margin. The under was live deep into the outing but still failed.
WIN · 7 K (6.2 IP) · +1.05u
KC Royals · Starting Pitcher
Seth Lugo
Strikeout Prop
Over 4.5 Strikeouts
+105 (Bet365) · 1 Unit
Lugo's Bet365 +105 price screened as the cleanest market outlier on the April 16 pitcher strikeout board. The model projection sits at 4.72 strikeouts, while the consensus sanity check still showed positive expected value after comparing the same 4.5 line across available books.
Wednesday slate
April 15, 2026
3 first-inning props posted
WIN · 0-0 First Inning · +1.05u
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles
No Run First Inning
First-Inning Prop
NRFI
+105 (Bet365) · 1 Unit
Official model play from the April 15 first-inning card. The NRFI screens at 54.75% against a 48.78% break-even price, creating a +5.97 percentage-point edge and +12.24% model EV. This is a price-sensitive play; it is only official if the listed +105 is still available.
LOSS · 0-0 First Inning · -1.00u
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
Yes Run First Inning
First-Inning Prop
YRFI
+105 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Plus-money YRFI position despite Petco Park's run-suppressing reputation. The model makes the run side 52.55% against a 48.78% break-even price, good for a +3.77 percentage-point edge and +7.73% model EV. Confirm Padres starter status before betting.
LOSS · OAK 1 in 1st · -1.00u
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
No Run First Inning
First-Inning Prop
NRFI
+110 (Bet365) · 1 Unit
The thinnest of the three April 15 first-inning plays, but still positive at the captured number. The model makes the NRFI 51.04% against a 47.62% break-even price, creating a +3.42 percentage-point edge and +7.19% model EV. Pass if the price collapses below the listed range.
Day 21 · Today
April 14, 2026
Tuesday slate · 1 prop posted
WIN · 16 Outs (5.1 IP) · +1.00u
MIL Brewers · Starting Pitcher
Jacob Misiorowski
Outs Recorded Prop
Under 16.5 Outs Recorded
-105 (BetMGM) · 1 Unit
Misiorowski is averaging 16.33 outs per start through three outings in 2026. Only cleared 16.5 once (18 outs vs TB). His other two starts landed at 15 and 16 outs. Nine walks in 16.1 innings inflates pitch counts and limits depth. Milwaukee is managing his workload carefully with pitch counts of 94, 94, and 101. Faces Kevin Gausman (2.08 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 0.58 WHIP) in a game script that keeps the Brewers' leash on their young arm short. First career meeting vs Toronto.
Day 20
April 13, 2026
Monday slate · 3 props posted
PHI Phillies · Starting Pitcher
Cristopher Sanchez
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts
+104 (FanDuel) · 1 Unit
Sanchez has 23 strikeouts in 3 starts with a 12.6 K/9 rate and a 1.65 ERA. He opened the year with 10 K against Texas. Averaging 7.67 K per start in 2026 with a 100% over rate at 5.5. Cubs striking out at a 22.2% clip with a .224 team AVG. Plus money on an elite arm at home whose 2026 average sits a full K above the line.
LAD Dodgers · Starting Pitcher
Justin Wrobleski
Strikeout Prop
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
+134 (FanDuel) · 1 Unit
Wrobleski is averaging 2.00 K per start in 2026 with a 0% over rate at every threshold. Contact-first pitcher who totaled just 4 K across 2 starts. The Mets do not chase (20.8% K rate, .236 AVG). The 3.5 line is 1.5 K above his actual 2026 pace. Plus money on a structural contact pitcher against a contact lineup. Under 2-for-2 in 2026.
WSH Nationals · Starting Pitcher
Cade Cavalli
Strikeout Prop
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
+128 (FanDuel) · 1 Unit
Cavalli has K totals of 5, 3, 3 across 3 starts in 2026 (3.67 avg). A 5.6 BB/9 burns pitches and caps innings. Ground ball specialist whose 2.51 ERA is propped up by a 4.22 xERA. Under cashed in 2 of 3 starts. His 2025 career average was 4.00 K per start with a 0% over rate at 6.5. Plus money on a structural K limitation.
Day 19
April 12, 2026
15-game slate · 2 props posted
PIT Pirates · Starting Pitcher
Paul Skenes
Strikeout Prop
Over 7.5 Strikeouts
-115 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Paul Skenes is the most dominant strikeout pitcher in the National League. His four-seam fastball averages 100.2 mph with a -4.1 degree vertical approach angle that creates a structural reaction-time deficit for hitters. His Splinker, a hybrid splitter-sinker at 94-96 mph, mirrors the fastball tunnel for 40 feet before dropping off the table. He is posting a 13.4 K/9 in 2026. The Cubs rank 4th in MLB in strikeout percentage against right-handed power pitchers at 26.2%, with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki showing particular vulnerability to high-velocity up-and-in fastballs. The 7.5 line underprices his K ceiling in this matchup.
LAD Dodgers · Designated Hitter
Shohei Ohtani
Total Bases Prop
Over 1.5 Total Bases
-125 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Ohtani is posting a 96.4 mph average exit velocity with a 58.4% hard-hit rate and 19.2% barrel rate, all in the 99th percentile. He faces Jon Gray, whose slider location becomes a liability against elite left-handed hitters, tending to hang in the lower-middle of the zone rather than burying back foot. Globe Life Field is playing hot with temperatures projected in the high 70s and a +12% carry metric above league average to right-center. The 1.5 line does not account for Ohtani's historic hard-hit floor against a pitcher with a demonstrated LHH vulnerability.
Day 18
April 11, 2026
22-game slate · 2 props posted
LAD Dodgers · Starting Pitcher
Emmet Sheehan
Strikeout Prop
Under 5.5 Strikeouts
+118 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Sheehan's stuff is real. He posted a 10.92 K/9 across 73.1 IP in 2025 for the Dodgers. But 2026 has been a workload-cap story, not a stuff story. The Dodgers have pulled him at 83 and 98 pitches in his first two starts coming off Tommy John, leaving him at 4.5 IP and exactly 4.0 K per outing. The 5.5 line is sitting 1.5 strikeouts above his actual 2026 pace, at plus money. Texas runs a patient AL West lineup that works counts and eats pitches, which only compounds the workload constraint. The under has cashed in 2 of 2 starts in 2026 and the structural cap on his outing length has not changed.
OAK Athletics · Starting Pitcher
Jacob Lopez
Strikeout Prop
Under 4.5 Strikeouts
+116 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Lopez has high-K stuff (10.97 K/9 in 2025 across 92.2 IP), but his command has fallen apart in 2026. He has walked 10 hitters across 8.1 innings, which is a 10.8 BB/9 that is bloating his pitch count and forcing early exits. He is averaging 4.0 IP and 3.0 K per start. Today he travels to Citi Field, a pitcher-friendly park with a patient Mets lineup that does not chase wipeout sliders out of the zone. The 4.5 line is half a strikeout above his actual 2026 pace, at plus money. Until Lopez fixes the walks, he physically cannot face enough hitters in a 90-pitch outing to clear 5 strikeouts. Under 2-for-2 in 2026.
Day 17
April 10, 2026
15-game slate · 3 props posted
WIN · 2 K · +1.00u
LAA Angels · Starting Pitcher
Jack Kochanowicz
Strikeout Prop
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
-106 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
56.5% under rate across 23 career starts with a 3.1 K average. His last 5 starts have gone 3, 3, 2, 1, 1 for a 2.0 K average. Career 3.1 K per start. Extreme groundball profile with a sinker/slider mix that generates weak contact, not whiffs. 5 combined K in 2 starts in 2026 with 7 walks in 9.2 IP. The 3.5 line is a full strikeout above his L5 average. Nearly even money on the under.
LOSS · 4 K · -1.00u
MIA Marlins · Starting Pitcher
Chris Paddack
Strikeout Prop
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
+118 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Plus money on a pitcher averaging 2.4 K over his last 10 starts. 54.5% under rate across 33 career starts. L5 values: 4, 2, 1, 2, 5 (L5 avg 2.8 K). 2026: 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA and 10 K through 2 starts. Fading K profile, early exits, and a contact-friendly Comerica Park ballpark. Tigers have a balanced lineup that makes contact. Best value on the board.
WIN · 4 K · +1.00u
SD Padres · Starting Pitcher
Walker Buehler
Strikeout Prop
Under 4.5 Strikeouts
-146 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
84.6% under rate (22 of 26 starts) with a 3.5 K career average. Last 5 K totals: 4, 2, 3, 3, 2 (L5 avg 2.8). L10 avg 2.9. 2026: 9.45 ERA with a 16.6% K rate (14th percentile whiff rate). Buehler has lost K upside since his elbow surgeries and is nowhere near the arm he used to be. Juice is heavy but the rate is overwhelming.
Day 15
April 8, 2026
15-game slate · 3 props posted
WIN · 3 K
ARI Diamondbacks · Starting Pitcher
Eduardo Rodriguez
Strikeout Prop
Under 4.5 Strikeouts
-120 · 1 Unit
Rodriguez has a 17.4% K rate and 2.27 xERA through 12 IP. His changeup (34.9% usage) generates just 10% K rate on ending PAs, a contact management weapon, not a finisher. Mets at 20.5% team K rate with .330 OBP and 107 wRC+. Blended matchup projects to ~4.0 strikeouts. Contact manager vs contact lineup.
WIN · 1 ER
SEA Mariners · Starting Pitcher
Bryan Woo
Earned Runs Prop
Under 1.5 Earned Runs
+100 · 1 Unit
Woo has a 1.38 ERA and 0.54 WHIP (3rd in MLB) through 13 IP with only 5 hits and 2 ER allowed all season. Last start: 7 scoreless innings, 6 K, 3 baserunners. Plus money on a pitcher this dominant is rare. 2025 All-Star with a 2.94 ERA across 186.2 IP.
WIN · 4 HA
LAD Dodgers · Starting Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani
Hits Allowed Prop
Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
-130 · 1 Unit
Ohtani allowed just 1 hit through 6 shutout innings in his 2026 pitching debut vs CLE on only 87 pitches. Toronto's offense is broken: .231 BA (16th), .348 SLG (21st), 36 runs scored (23rd in MLB). Blue Jays on a 6-game losing streak, scored 1 run in their last game. Ace duel with Dylan Cease on the other side.
WIN · 2 K
DET Tigers · Starting Pitcher
Framber Valdez
Strikeout Prop
Under 5.5 Strikeouts
-113 · 1 Unit
Valdez is a career groundball pitcher, not a strikeout artist. Career K/9 around 8.0. His 10 K in 12 IP (7.5 K/9) is elevated for him. His game plan is inducing weak contact via sinker/curveball, not missing bats. Over 5.5 is -107 on DK, meaning the under at -113 has value against his career profile. More likely to go 6-7 IP with 4-5 K.
Day 14
April 7, 2026
15-game slate · 5 props posted
LOSS · 4 ER
DET Tigers · Starting Pitcher
Tarik Skubal
Earned Runs Prop
Under 1.5 Earned Runs
-160 · 1 Unit
Back-to-back AL Cy Young winner has a 0.69 ERA through 13 IP with just 1 ER allowed all season. Minnesota is hitting .169 vs left-handed pitching (28th in MLB) and averaging just 1.67 runs in the first 5 innings (6th lowest). Edge scanner shows DET road games in this profile go under 90.9% of the time with an average total of 5.1.
WIN · 2 ER
MIA Marlins · Starting Pitcher
Sandy Alcantara
Earned Runs Prop
Earned Runs Under
1 Unit
Alcantara has a 0.00 ERA through 16 innings with a 0.56 WHIP. Complete game shutout vs the White Sox on April 1. Seven shutout innings Opening Day vs Colorado. Yesterday's CIN at MIA was 2-0. Cincinnati is on a back-to-back. Edge scanner has 4 converging under trends with average totals of 6.4 on a 7.0 game line.
WIN · 1 ER
PIT Pirates · Starting Pitcher
Paul Skenes
Earned Runs Prop
Earned Runs Under
1 Unit
Game total is 6.0, the lowest on the entire board. Skenes has a 2.10 career ERA in 57 starts (4th best since 1920). His ER under has hit in 17 of his last 25 games at 27% ROI. Last start: 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K vs Cincinnati. Nick Pivetta on the other side has his ER under hitting 13 of 20. This is a classic pitchers' duel.
WIN · 2 ER
BOS Red Sox · Starting Pitcher
Garrett Crochet
Earned Runs Prop
Earned Runs Under
1 Unit
Crochet has 15 K in 11 IP with a 31.9% K rate to start 2026. Led MLB with 255 strikeouts in 2025. Jacob Misiorowski on the other side has 18 K in 11 IP. Two elite strikeout arms in a 6.5 total game. Edge scanner: BOS home in this profile goes under 88.9% of the time with an average total of 6.0.
LOSS · 1 Hit
ATL Braves · Catcher
Jonah Heim
Hits Prop
Hits Under
1 Unit
Heim's hits under has cashed in each of his last 4 games at +4.80 units profit. His total bases under hit 4 straight too at +4.35 units. His H/R/RBI under and singles under have both cashed all 4. When every offensive category is trending under, you ride it. Edge scanner confirms ATL at LAA under trends at 22.2% over rate.
Day 13
April 6, 2026
13-game slate · 3 props posted
LOSS · 6 K
WSH Nationals · Starting Pitcher
Zack Littell
Strikeout Prop
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
+128 (FanDuel) · 1 Unit
Littell posted a 6.27 K/9 in 2025 with the lowest walk rate in all of MLB (4.2%). His 17.1% K rate ranked bottom-5 among qualified starters. Had just 1 K in 5 IP in his 2026 debut vs the Phillies. Tonight he faces a Cardinals lineup that strikes out at just a 21.9% rate, 9th lowest in baseball. Plus money on the ultimate contact pitcher.
WIN · 3 K
SF Giants · Starting Pitcher
Adrian Houser
Strikeout Prop
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
+108 (FanDuel) · 1 Unit
Classic sinkerball pitcher with a career 7.1 K/9 and 48.9% ground ball rate in 2025 (79th percentile). His K/9 has been under 7.0 in four of the last five seasons. Had 4 K in 5.1 IP in his Giants debut. The Phillies have a moderate 21.7% K rate and bat .258 as a team. Plus money on a ground ball specialist who doesn't miss bats.
WIN · 2 K
STL Cardinals · Starting Pitcher
Andre Pallante
Strikeout Prop
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
-118 (FanDuel) · 1 Unit
MLB's #1 ground ball rate pitcher among all starters in 2025 at 67.4%. His 15.5% K rate ranked dead last (51st of 52) among qualified starters. Had 3 K in 5 IP in his 2026 debut shutout vs the Mets. Even facing a K-prone Nationals lineup led by James Wood's 32.1% K rate, Pallante's extreme contact profile limits his upside.
Day 12
April 5, 2026
15-game slate · 3 props posted
LOSS · 4 K · -1.72u
Luis Castillo
Strikeout Prop
Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Angels (-172)
The Angels lead all of MLB with 99 strikeouts through 8 games and are batting just .192 as a team. Yoan Moncada (12 K in 28 AB), Zach Neto (9 K in 34 AB), and Jo Adell (7 K in 33 AB) are all whiffing at alarming rates. Castillo put up 7 K in 6 IP against the Yankees in his 2026 debut and owns a career 5-2, 2.84 ERA with 80 K in 11 appearances against the Angels. Angel Stadium ranks as the 6th-best K park in baseball. The juice is heavy at -172 but this is the strongest K matchup on the entire board.
-172 (FanDuel) · 1 Unit
LOSS · 0 K · -1.24u
Eric Lauer
Strikeout Prop
Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs White Sox (-124)
Lauer punched out 9 batters in 5.1 IP against Oakland in his 2026 debut, and the White Sox are an even softer matchup. Chicago has the second-most strikeouts in baseball (91), bats just .212 with a .640 OPS, and features four hitters with 9+ K already: Austin Hays (12 K), Colson Montgomery (11 K), Andrew Benintendi (10 K), and Tristan Peters (9 K). Lauer's 2025 K rate jumped to 8.8 K/9 with an excellent 3.92 K:BB ratio. The 4.5 line feels too low given the matchup quality. CWS struck out 18 times in the first two games of this series.
-124 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
WIN · 9 K · +1.00u
Chase Burns
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Rangers (-130)
The No. 2 overall pick from 2024 racked up 7 K in just 5 scoreless innings in his 2026 debut, touching 99 mph and generating 15 swings-and-misses on only 78 pitches. Burns posted a 35.6% K rate in his 2025 MLB action and a 12.14 K/9 across three minor league levels. His college K rate at Wake Forest was 17.19 K/9. ScoresAndOdds projects him at 7.21 K today, 0.71 above this line. The main risk is workload (5 IP last time), but the stuff is filthy enough to rack up Ks quickly. The Rangers rank middle-of-the-pack in K rate but Burns has the arsenal to dominate any lineup.
-130 (Fanatics) · 1 Unit
LOSS · 4 K · -1.30u
Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Marlins (-130)
Fried has been untouchable through 13.1 scoreless innings (0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP) with 10 K across two starts. He went 7 IP on just 90 pitches last time vs Seattle, and his four-seam fastball usage has nearly doubled, generating 6 K on the pitch while allowing just 1 hit. His 2025 campaign saw a career-high 8.7 K/9 rate (189 K in 195.1 IP). Now he gets a rebuilding Marlins lineup at Yankee Stadium. The efficiency to work 7+ innings means more K opportunities, and the stuff has been even sharper than last year's career-best numbers. Rain delay is worth monitoring.
-130 (DraftKings) · 1 Unit
Day 11
April 4, 2026
1 prop posted
LOSS · 5 K · -1.00u
Emerson Hancock
Strikeout Prop
Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Angels (+132)
Career-high 9 K in his 2026 debut (6 no-hit innings vs Cleveland). Overhauled pitch mix: four-seam fastball at 53%, sweeper at 26% with a 52.4% whiff rate. Angels strike out 28% of the time against right-handed pitching across 254 PA. Plus money on a retooled arm facing one of baseball's most K-prone lineups.
+132 · 1 Unit
Day 10
April 3, 2026
4 props posted
LOSS · 6 K · -1.10u
Dylan Cease
Strikeout Prop
Over 7.5 Strikeouts vs White Sox
Cease struck out 12 in his Toronto debut (5.1 IP vs Oakland). Now faces his FORMER team, the White Sox, who own the worst K rate in baseball at 35.9%. Cease holds a .188 opponent AVG and 26.3% K rate vs the current CWS roster. His over 5.5 K rate at home: 94% (15/16). Against the most K-prone team in the league, this number should fall with ease.
-110 (est.) · 1 Unit
LOSS · 6 K · -1.00u
Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Angels
Already cashed Woo O 6.5 K on March 28 at +106 (7 K vs Guardians). Now he faces the Angels, who carry a 30% K rate through 6 games. Woo's over 5.5 K rate at home is 86% (12/14) and he averaged 7.7 K over his last 10 starts. His L5 values: 6, 3, 9, 13, 7. At plus money, this is a repeat winner in a stronger matchup.
+113 · 1 Unit
WIN · 4 K · +1.00u
Mitch Keller
Strikeout Prop
Under 5.5 Strikeouts vs Orioles
Keller goes under 5.5 K in 72% of his starts (23/32) and that rate climbs to 82% at home (14/17). He's a ground-ball, contact-management pitcher whose K rate has declined in each of the last 3 seasons. Last start: 3 K in 6 IP vs the Mets. The Orioles' contact-oriented lineup (Henderson, Rutschman) makes this an ideal under spot at PNC Park.
-125 (est.) · 1 Unit
Day 9
April 2, 2026
6 props posted
WIN · 8 K · +1.00u
Cole Ragans
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Twins
Ragans has faced the Twins 5 times in his career and gone over 6.5 K in ALL 5 starts: 9, 7, 8, 7, 11. Average of 8.4 K vs Minnesota. His overall O6.5 rate is 78% in 2024 (25/32) and 69% in 2025 (9/13). Against the specific opponent, this is a 100% hit rate across a meaningful sample. At -130, this is the top play on the board.
-130 · 1 Unit
WIN · 3 K · +1.00u
Ryne Nelson
Strikeout Prop
Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs Braves
Nelson has gone under 4.5 K in 67% of his starts across 90 career outings over three full seasons (2023-2025). His career K average is 3.9 per start with a median of 4. He profiles as a contact pitcher with a 19-21% K rate. 90 starts is a massive, reliable sample that tells you exactly what this pitcher is.
-120 (est.) · 1 Unit
WIN · 3 K · +1.20u
Taj Bradley
Strikeout Prop
Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Royals
Bradley recorded just 2 K in 7 full innings vs KC last April 29. The Royals feature one of MLB's lowest-K lineups: Bobby Witt Jr (0.8 K/game), Salvador Perez (0.8), Vinnie Pasquantino (0.7), Maikel Garcia (0.5). In 2025, Bradley had 9 starts with 3 or fewer K (33%). Plus money on the under against a lineup built to put the ball in play.
+120 · 1 Unit
LOSS · 5 K · -1.15u
David Peterson
Strikeout Prop
Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs Giants
Peterson struck out exactly 4 in each of his two most recent starts vs San Francisco (July and August 2025). His L5 average has dropped to 3.0 K, a clear downward trend. At pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, against a team he has consistently failed to miss bats against, the under has recent data support and a favorable venue profile.
-115 (est.) · 1 Unit
Day 8
April 1, 2026
15-game slate · 4 props posted
LOSS · 5 K · -1.00u
PIT Pirates · Starting Pitcher
Paul Skenes
Strikeout Prop
Over 7.5 Strikeouts
EVEN · 1 Unit
The anomaly scanner flagged this as a perfect storm: Skenes has gone 7+ K in ALL 5 career starts vs Cincinnati, averaging 8.0 K with a 12.4 K/9 against the Reds specifically. His values: 7, 9, 9, 8, 7. He also holds a 28-inning scoreless streak vs CIN with a 0.31 ERA. Yes, his Opening Day was a disaster (0.2 IP, 5 ER), but that was command-related, not physical. The Reds are batting .194 as a team and striking out 10.4 times per game. At even money, this is the strongest signal our system has produced all season.
WIN · 10 K · +1.00u
TOR Blue Jays · Starting Pitcher
Kevin Gausman
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts
-145 · 1 Unit
Gausman set the Blue Jays franchise record with 11 K on Opening Day vs Oakland, striking out 7 of the first 10 batters. Now he faces a Rockies team that is the worst lineup in MLB against the splitter: .133 batting average and a 41.5% strikeout rate against that pitch. Colorado bats .203 on the road (67-point drop from Coors). Gausman averages 7.0 K per career appearance vs Colorado with 63 total strikeouts in 9 matchups. The juice is steep at -145, but this matchup is borderline unfair.
WIN · 7 K · +1.24u
MIA Marlins · Starting Pitcher
Sandy Alcantara
Strikeout Prop
Over 5.5 Strikeouts
+124 · 1 Unit
The 2022 Cy Young winner is fully back. Alcantara hit 100 mph in spring training and delivered 7 IP of shutout ball on Opening Day. His final 8 starts of 2025 showed the real Sandy: 8.7 K/9, 2.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP. Now he faces a White Sox team with the worst strikeout rate in baseball at 35.9%, and a 34% K rate specifically vs right-handed pitching. In a prior start vs Chicago he racked up 8 K while touching 99.9 mph. At plus money (+124), the market is undervaluing his post-TJ velocity restoration against the most K-prone team in baseball.
LOSS · 2 K · -1.06u
LA Dodgers · Starting Pitcher
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts
-106 · 1 Unit
We already cashed Yamamoto Over 5.5 K on March 26 at even money, and now we're going back to the well against an even worse lineup. The Guardians have the 3rd-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 29.5%, with Kyle Manzardo (50% K rate) and Gabriel Arias (44% K rate) anchoring a lineup batting .188 with a .574 OPS. Yamamoto's career 10.4 K/9 rate ranks in the 89th percentile, and the World Series MVP has looked sharp early. The line jumped from 5.5 to 6.5 from his last start, but at just -106 against this contact-challenged Cleveland lineup, the value is still there.
Day 6
March 30, 2026
15-game slate · 3 props posted
LOSS · 5 K · -1.38u
CHC Cubs · Starting Pitcher
Edward Cabrera
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts
-138 · 1 Unit
Cabrera posted 150 K in 137.2 IP (25%+ K rate) with Miami in 2025, and now makes his Cubs debut against an Angels lineup that led MLB with a 27% team strikeout rate last season. LA has struck out 10+ times as a team in 3 of 4 games to start 2026. Cabrera's fastball sits 96.7 mph and his walk rate dropped from 12% to 8.3%, meaning more strikes and deeper outings.
LOSS · 3 K (INJ) · -1.08u
TOR Blue Jays · Starting Pitcher
Cody Ponce
Strikeout Prop
Over 5.5 Strikeouts
-108 · 1 Unit
The KBO MVP (17-1, 1.89 ERA, 252 K in 180.2 IP) makes his MLB return with elite spin rates and a devastating changeup. The Rockies had the second-highest K rate in MLB (26.4%) against right-handed pitching last season and posted a league-worst .260 wOBA on the road. Colorado is 0-3 and striking out at a 28.6% clip away from home.
WIN · 5 K · +1.00u
ATL Braves · Starting Pitcher
Bryce Elder
Strikeout Prop
Over 4.5 Strikeouts
-128 · 1 Unit
Elder improved his K rate to over 25% in September and pitched 6+ innings in 9 of his last 11 starts. The Athletics struck out a staggering 50 times in just 3 games against Blue Jays starters to open the season. Oakland's aggressive, swing-for-the-fences approach has produced historically awful contact rates, and Elder's workhorse tendencies give him plenty of innings to accumulate strikeouts.
Day 5
March 29, 2026
12-game slate · 6 props posted
WIN · 7 K · +1.00u
PHI Phillies · Starting Pitcher
Jesus Luzardo
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts
-125 · 1 Unit
Luzardo posted an 11.2 K/9 at home in 2025, hitting 7+ K in 11 of 16 home starts. The Rangers hit just .225 with a .286 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season (27th in MLB) and have already struck out 23 times against Phillies pitching in the first two games of this series. ESPN projects 6.7 K, the highest on the board today.
WIN · 7 K · +1.00u
CHC Cubs · Starting Pitcher
Shota Imanaga
Strikeout Prop
Over 4.5 Strikeouts
-140 · 1 Unit
Imanaga's 24.6% whiff rate and 7.28 K/9 in 2025 support consistent punchout volume. He racked up 18 K in 20 spring innings and faces a Nationals lineup that struggles against left-handed pitching. The Cubs are the biggest favorite on the board at -259, so Imanaga should pitch deep into this game with plenty of K opportunities.
LOSS · 4 K · -1.00u
HOU Astros · Starting Pitcher
Tatsuya Imai
MLB Debut
Over 5.5 Strikeouts
+102 · 1 Unit
Imai's MLB debut comes with massive K upside. The $54M Japanese import posted a 1.92 ERA with 178 K in 163.2 IP (9.8 K/9) in NPB, sits 95 and touches 99 with a dominant changeup and slider. His unusual low-slot delivery generates deception. Houston grades as the #4 venue for strikeouts. Plus-money on an elite arm making his debut.
WIN · 6 K · +1.00u
BOS Red Sox · Starting Pitcher
Connelly Early
Strikeout Prop
Under 6.5 Strikeouts
-155 · 1 Unit
Early has elite stuff (11 K in his MLB debut, 16 K in 17 spring IP), but he's on an 85-pitch count limit today. That caps him at roughly 5 innings, which creates a hard ceiling on strikeout volume regardless of how dominant he looks. ESPN projects 72% win probability on this under. This is a logistics bet, not a talent bet.
LOSS · 4 ER · -1.73u
CHC Cubs · Starting Pitcher
Shota Imanaga
Earned Runs Prop
Under 2.5 Earned Runs
-173 · 1 Unit
A different angle on the Cubs-Nationals mismatch. Imanaga's 0.988 WHIP and 4.6% walk rate limit baserunners, and his fly-ball approach benefits from Wrigley's 7th-highest fences in baseball. The Nationals' weak offense completes the picture. ESPN gives this a 71% win probability. The juice is steep at -173, but the probability backs it.
LOSS · 0 HR · -0.50u
CLE Guardians · Outfielder
Chase DeLauter
Home Run Prop
To Hit a Home Run
+630 · 0.5 Units
DeLauter has hit 4 home runs in his first 3 career MLB games, the 3rd player in history to homer in each of his first 3 games (Trevor Story, Kyle Lewis). He's the first in Cleveland franchise history to hit multiple HRs in his debut. The lefty bat faces Emerson Hancock, who allowed a .494 SLG to left-handed hitters last season. At +630, half a unit on the hottest hitter in baseball.
Opening Day 2026
March 25, 2026
NYY @ SF · 8:05 PM ET · Netflix
✓ WIN +1.40u
SF Giants · Starting Pitcher
Logan Webb
Strikeout Prop
7+ Strikeouts
+140 · 1 Unit
Webb posted a career-high 9.74 K/9 in 2025 (224 K in 207 IP) and faces a Yankees lineup with six left-handed bats. Career BvP data is brutal for New York: Jazz Chisholm strikes out 53.8% of the time against Webb (7 K in 13 AB), Judge whiffs 42.9%, and Wells is 0-for-3 with 2 K. Webb struck out approximately 31% of LHH in 2025. At +140, you need a 41.7% hit rate to break even, and Webb's K profile against this specific matchup projects above that threshold.
Day 2
March 26, 2026
Full slate underway
✓ WIN +1.00u
LA Dodgers · Starting Pitcher
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Strikeout Prop
Over 5.5 Strikeouts
+100 · 1 Unit
Yamamoto delivered exactly what the numbers suggested, fanning 6 batters to cash this prop at even money. His elite strikeout stuff translated from spring to the regular season without missing a beat.
Day 4
March 28, 2026
ARI @ LAD · CLE @ SEA
✗ LOSS -1.00u
LA Dodgers · Starting Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts
+126 · 1 Unit
Glasnow cleared 6.5 K in 80% of quality home starts in 2025, but tonight he fell one short with 6 K in 6.0 IP against Arizona. He was efficient on 90 pitches but the D-backs put the ball in play early in counts, limiting whiff opportunities. The home split edge was real, but this was one of the 20% misses.
✓ WIN +1.06u
SEA Mariners · Starting Pitcher
Bryan Woo
Strikeout Prop
Over 6.5 Strikeouts
+106 · 1 Unit
Woo cashed this prop with 7 K through just 5 innings on 59 pitches. The All-Star's recent surge continued exactly as the props engine projected. His last 6 home starts now show an 83% over rate on this line, validating the trend-based edge.
How We Evaluate MLB Player Props
Every prop on this page is filtered through a set of statistical inputs: the player's recent performance, the opposing lineup or pitcher's tendencies, park factors, and the posted line relative to those inputs.
For pitcher props, the key metrics are strikeout rate, swinging strike percentage, and opponent contact quality. For hitter props, the inputs include barrel rate, expected slugging, and platoon splits against the day's starting pitcher. See our advanced stats guide for a full breakdown of these metrics.
Confidence ratings reflect how strongly the data supports one side of the line. A "High Confidence" tag means the underlying numbers point clearly in one direction. A "Lean" means the edge is narrower and more dependent on game conditions.
Player Prop Profiles
View all player profiles ›
Frequently Asked Questions About MLB Props Picks
What are MLB props picks?
MLB props picks are predictions on individual player performance outcomes, such as a pitcher's strikeout total, a batter's home runs, or total bases. Props focus on player-level markets rather than game outcomes like moneylines or spreads.
When are daily MLB prop picks posted?
Daily MLB prop picks are posted each morning before first pitch during the regular season. The page updates with fresh analysis based on that day's matchups, starting pitchers, and lineup data.
How are prop confidence ratings determined?
Confidence ratings are based on how strongly the statistical data supports one side of the prop line. High Confidence means the matchup data, recent performance, and park factors all point in the same direction. Moderate and Lean ratings indicate narrower edges. Our advanced stats breakdown explains the metrics behind each rating.
Get notified when daily MLB prop analysis resumes
