2026 Season Preview

Key Offseason Moves & Their Betting Impact for 2026

Published: December 17, 2025 | Last Updated: December 17, 2025

The Offseason Picture

The 2025-26 offseason has already produced several blockbuster moves that will reshape the competitive landscape heading into next season. From the Orioles' aggressive spending to the Blue Jays' pitching upgrade following their World Series loss, teams are positioning themselves for championship runs.

For handicappers, understanding these moves—and their ripple effects—is essential for identifying value when season lines and futures are released. Let's break down the most impactful transactions and what they mean for 2026 betting markets.

Biggest Signings & Betting Impact

Pete Alonso A

Baltimore Orioles

5 years / $155 million

The Orioles just got serious. Adding Alonso's middle-of-the-order power to an already potent lineup makes Baltimore a legitimate AL pennant threat. Expect Orioles win total futures to jump 4-5 wins from their opening lines. The AL East just got even tougher.

Dylan Cease A

Toronto Blue Jays

$210 million

Toronto's response to their Game 7 heartbreak: add a true ace. Cease gives them a legitimate No. 1 starter who can match up with anyone in October. The Blue Jays will be a popular futures bet, but watch for inflated prices early. The value may be in AL East division odds rather than pennant futures.

Josh Naylor B+

Seattle Mariners

5 years / $92.5 million (no deferrals, full NTC)

Seattle addressed their biggest weakness: run production. Naylor's power bat in that pitcher-friendly park is an interesting fit. The full no-trade clause and no deferrals show how badly Seattle wanted him. Watch Mariners run totals carefully in daily markets.

Kyle Schwarber B

Philadelphia Phillies

5 years

Continuity matters. Schwarber returning keeps the Phillies' lineup intact and maintains their clubhouse chemistry. Not a splashy move, but a smart one. Philly remains an NL contender with known commodities.

Ha-Seong Kim B

Atlanta Braves

1 year / $20 million

The Braves are loading up for another run. Kim provides elite defense at shortstop and underrated offensive production. Combined with their Robert Suarez and Mike Yastrzemski additions, Atlanta is positioning themselves as NL favorites once again.

Key Trade Alert

Taylor Ward to Baltimore for Grayson Rodriguez
The Orioles are going all-in. Adding Ward's bat to their loaded lineup while dealing a top pitching prospect shows they're in win-now mode. This impacts both teams' projections significantly.

Qualifying Offer Acceptances

Four notable players accepted their $22.025 million qualifying offers, removing themselves from the free agent market:

Trent Grisham (Yankees) - Provides outfield depth and defense
Gleyber Torres (Tigers) - Rebuild piece in Detroit
Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) - Ace returns if healthy
Shota Imanaga (Cubs) - Breakout starter stays put

These acceptances provide roster certainty for projections. Woodruff's health will be worth monitoring for Brewers division odds.

Still Available: Watch List

Several impact players remain unsigned, and their landing spots could dramatically shift betting lines:

Kyle Tucker

Alex Bregman

Bo Bichette

Framber Valdez

Cody Bellinger

OF/1B

Ranger Suarez

Michael King

Munetaka Murakami

INF (posting)

Murakami's posting window closes December 22nd. If the Japanese slugger comes to MLB, the team that signs him instantly becomes more interesting for futures bettors. Michael King has strong interest from the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Cubs, and Mets—any of those destinations would impact their rotation projections.

Betting Implications: Key Takeaways

AL East Arms Race

The division is now absurdly competitive. Orioles added Alonso and Ward. Blue Jays got Cease. Yankees retained Grisham. Red Sox are pursuing King. Any team could win this division, which means division odds might offer better value than pennant futures where you're betting against four other playoff-caliber teams.

NL Favorites

The Dodgers return as defending champions with their core intact. The Braves are loading up. The Phillies maintained their roster. Don't sleep on the Mets with their Weaver and Polanco additions. The NL pennant race could be wide open.

Value Opportunities

Look for teams that made under-the-radar moves. The Mariners' offensive additions could push them from contender to favorite in a weak AL West. The Braves' depth signings add value that projections might not fully capture early.

Coming Soon: Full 2026 Season Projections

We'll release our complete win total projections and futures analysis once the major free agents sign. Check back regularly for updates as the offseason develops.