2026 MLB Futures: Complete Sharp Money Breakdown

January 19, 2026 | Futures Analysis

The 2026 MLB offseason has been the most active in recent memory. Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers. Bregman to the Cubs. Bichette to the Mets. Suarez to the Red Sox. The futures market is in constant flux. Here's where sharp money is moving and where value still exists.

World Series Odds

TeamOddsSharp Action
Los Angeles Dodgers+450Heavy public, sharps fading at this price
New York Mets+550Sharp money after Bichette signing
Philadelphia Phillies+800Value play, sharps nibbling
Atlanta Braves+900Rotation questions, sharps cautious
New York Yankees+800Waiting on free agent moves

Yankees Load Up: Fried and Bellinger Signings

The Yankees made two franchise-altering moves this offseason. Max Fried signed for 8 years and $218 million, the largest guarantee ever for a left-handed pitcher. Then Cody Bellinger re-signed for 5 years and $162.5 million after declining his player option. These moves solidify New York as legitimate World Series contenders.

Market Impact: The Yankees' World Series odds have shifted from +1000 pre-signings to +800 currently. Their rotation of Fried, Cole, and Rodon is among baseball's elite. Sharp money views them as the primary threat to the Dodgers in a potential Fall Classic matchup.

With the major dominoes now fallen, the futures market has largely stabilized. The best remaining value exists in division futures and team-specific props rather than outright World Series bets.

Division Futures Value

AL East

The most competitive division in baseball. Yankees (+280), Orioles (+290), Blue Jays (+320). Red Sox have moved to +380 after the Suarez signing. Sharp money is on the Orioles at +290 given their young core and rotation upside.

NL East

Mets (+180), Braves (+200), Phillies (+280). The Bichette signing pushed the Mets to the front. Phillies at +280 represent contrarian value if you believe in their pitching depth and Realmuto regression.

NL Central

Brewers (+200), Cubs (+220). Bregman changed the Cubs' outlook significantly. Their win total moved from 87.5 to 89.5. Sharp money on the Brewers at plus money given their track record of outperforming expectations.

Win Total Moves

TeamWin TotalMovement
Cubs89.5+2 (Bregman)
Orioles91.5+4 (Alonso/Helsley)
Blue Jays89.5+4 (Cease)
Dodgers98.5+2 (Tucker)
Red Sox86.5+2 (Suarez)

The Bottom Line

The best time to bet futures is when the market hasn't fully adjusted to new information. Right now, with unsigned free agents still on the board, there's uncertainty in the market. That uncertainty creates opportunity. Lock in value before the remaining dominoes fall. See our detailed NL Central breakdown for Cubs-specific analysis.