The 2026 MLB offseason has been the most active in recent memory. Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers. Bregman to the Cubs. Bichette to the Mets. Suarez to the Red Sox. The futures market is in constant flux. Here's where sharp money is moving and where value still exists.
World Series Odds
| Team | Odds | Sharp Action |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +450 | Heavy public, sharps fading at this price |
| New York Mets | +550 | Sharp money after Bichette signing |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +800 | Value play, sharps nibbling |
| Atlanta Braves | +900 | Rotation questions, sharps cautious |
| New York Yankees | +800 | Waiting on free agent moves |
Yankees Load Up: Fried and Bellinger Signings
The Yankees made two franchise-altering moves this offseason. Max Fried signed for 8 years and $218 million, the largest guarantee ever for a left-handed pitcher. Then Cody Bellinger re-signed for 5 years and $162.5 million after declining his player option. These moves solidify New York as legitimate World Series contenders.
With the major dominoes now fallen, the futures market has largely stabilized. The best remaining value exists in division futures and team-specific props rather than outright World Series bets.
Division Futures Value
AL East
The most competitive division in baseball. Yankees (+280), Orioles (+290), Blue Jays (+320). Red Sox have moved to +380 after the Suarez signing. Sharp money is on the Orioles at +290 given their young core and rotation upside.
NL East
Mets (+180), Braves (+200), Phillies (+280). The Bichette signing pushed the Mets to the front. Phillies at +280 represent contrarian value if you believe in their pitching depth and Realmuto regression.
NL Central
Brewers (+200), Cubs (+220). Bregman changed the Cubs' outlook significantly. Their win total moved from 87.5 to 89.5. Sharp money on the Brewers at plus money given their track record of outperforming expectations.
Win Total Moves
| Team | Win Total | Movement |
|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 89.5 | +2 (Bregman) |
| Orioles | 91.5 | +4 (Alonso/Helsley) |
| Blue Jays | 89.5 | +4 (Cease) |
| Dodgers | 98.5 | +2 (Tucker) |
| Red Sox | 86.5 | +2 (Suarez) |
The Bottom Line
The best time to bet futures is when the market hasn't fully adjusted to new information. Right now, with unsigned free agents still on the board, there's uncertainty in the market. That uncertainty creates opportunity. Lock in value before the remaining dominoes fall. See our detailed NL Central breakdown for Cubs-specific analysis.