Methodology and Application

Every trend documented on this site is built from a minimum of five full regular seasons of data. Sample sizes below 200 total decisions are flagged as preliminary. Records and ROI figures are calculated against the closing line, meaning early access to a number can shift the expected return in either direction. Trends are not predictions. They are historical tendencies that describe how similar situations have resolved over a meaningful sample.

The most productive approach to trend-based research involves layering multiple inputs rather than relying on a single data point. A trend that aligns with a favorable pitching matchup, a supportive park factor, and a closing line that offers value carries far more weight than a trend sitting in isolation. Conversely, a trend that contradicts every other signal in a given game should not override a full analysis.

Key principles for applying trend data responsibly:

• Treat trends as one input within a broader framework that includes pitching matchups, lineup construction, bullpen availability, and park factors
• Verify that a trend's sample size is large enough to be statistically meaningful before weighting it heavily
• Understand that closing line ROI does not automatically translate to real-world profit if the line has already moved past the value threshold
• Look for spots where multiple trends converge on the same side of a game rather than acting on a single trend in isolation
• Revisit trends annually as new season data either confirms or erodes the historical pattern

For a complete overview of how trends fit within a structured handicapping approach, consult the MLB Betting Analytics Guide, which outlines the full analytical framework used across this site.