Here's the thing about the Cubs. They didn't just make one move. They made THE move. Alex Bregman on a 5-year, $175 million deal changes everything. Yeah, about $70 million of that is deferred, bringing the per-season hit to around $30-31 million. But who cares about the accounting? What matters is this: the Cubs now have an elite infield with Bregman, Swanson, and Hoerner. That's as good as any infield in baseball.

Before the Bregman signing, Chicago was sitting at +2200 to +2500 for the World Series. After? They jumped to +1500 on DraftKings and +1900 on FanDuel. That's a massive move. ESPN's simulations bumped them up 1.3 wins and nearly 6% in playoff odds. The market is telling you something.

Let's not forget they also landed Edward Cabrera in a trade, giving up top prospect Owen Caissie to fortify the rotation. The Cubs won 92 games last year and fell to the Brewers in the NLDS. They're done being the bridesmaid. Jed Hoyer went all in.

The projected 2026 payroll is now $231 million, about $25 million more than last year. They're bumping up against the luxury tax threshold at around $243 million CBT payroll. This is a team spending like contenders because they believe they ARE contenders.

The Handicapping Angle

Here's where it gets tricky. At +150 for the division, the Cubs are the obvious play. And when something's obvious, the books have already baked it in. You're laying juice on a team that still has to prove they can beat Milwaukee in October. The Brewers have owned this division, winning it three of the last four years. Until the Cubs actually knock them off, I'm not laying money at +150.

The over on their win total is where I'd look. If that number comes in around 87-88 wins, there's value. A team that won 92 last year and added Bregman and Cabrera should project for 90+ wins. But the division line? Too much juice for my blood.

I love betting on the Brewers, and I'll tell you why. They finished 97-65 last year. They've won this division four of the last five seasons. And every single year, everyone picks them to fall off. Every single year, they don't.

At +180 for the division, you're getting plus money on a team that won 97 games. The market is fading them because the Cubs made splashy moves. But let me ask you something: when's the last time the Brewers made a splashy move? They don't need to. They develop pitching like nobody's business. They find value in places other teams ignore.

They've been quiet this offseason. Real quiet. The shortstop spot is a question mark. The rotation needs some answers. But Freddy Peralta is still one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league. William Contreras is an offensive force. And Craig Counsell... wait, no. He's in Chicago now. That's actually the one thing that concerns me.

Pat Murphy took over and they still won 97 games. That tells you it's the system, not just the manager. The Brewers have a 71.43% implied probability to make the playoffs based on current odds. The market respects them even if the hype doesn't.

The Handicapping Angle

At +180, I actually like the Brewers for the division more than the Cubs at +150. You're getting 30 cents more on a team with a better recent track record. If their win total comes in around 83.5, I'm smashing the over. This team has won 91+ games in three of the last four seasons. They're not falling to 83 wins because the Cubs signed Bregman.

My play: Brewers over 83.5 wins if that number holds. Division title at +180 is a strong value bet.

Holy hell, what happened in St. Louis? Let me run through this for you. They traded Nolan Arenado to Arizona for pitching prospect Jack Martinez. They sent $31 million to the Diamondbacks to make it happen. They traded Sonny Gray to Boston. They shipped Willson Contreras to the Red Sox with $8 million in cash.

This isn't a retool. This is a full-blown teardown. The Cardinals are clearing the decks.

Arenado waived his no-trade clause to go to Arizona. He's 34, coming off a rough 2025 where he slashed .237/.289/.377 with just 12 home runs in 107 games. His OPS+ has fallen from 150 in 2022 to 108 to 101 to 87 last year. The Cardinals looked at that decline and said "we're out."

Gray's deal was restructured. He's getting $31 million in 2026 with a $10 million buyout on a mutual option. Contreras got an extra million in his renegotiated contract: $18 million in 2026, $17 million in 2027, with a $20 million option for 2028 that includes a $7.5 million buyout.

What are the Cardinals left with? Question marks at third base between Nolan Gorman, top prospect JJ Wetherholt, and Jordan Walker. A rotation that just lost one of its best arms. A lineup that traded away its best power bat (even if that power bat was declining).

The Handicapping Angle

At +1800 for the division, you'd need a miracle. Don't bother. The under on their win total is the only play here. This team is going to be bad. They might be really bad. Depending on where that number lands, there's definitely value on the under. I'd look for something in the low 70s and hammer it.

The Cardinals are in full rebuild mode. They're not hiding it. They're not trying to compete. They're clearing money and collecting prospects. Betting them to do anything this year is throwing money away.

Every year, I want to believe in the Reds. They've got Hunter Greene, who's turning into a legitimate ace. The kid posted a 2.76 ERA with 132 strikeouts in 107.2 innings last year, good for 4.4 WAR. He's only 26. He's signed through 2028 on that team-friendly 6-year, $53 million deal. Baseball Reference projects him for 3.35 ERA and 148 strikeouts in 2026.

When asked about trading Greene, manager Terry Francona shut it down: "We can't get those guys in our market, so for us to trade him, somebody better give us their whole team." That's the kind of quote that tells you they're building around him.

But here's the problem. Matt McLain, who was supposed to be their breakout star, hit .220 with a .643 OPS in 2025 after missing all of 2024 with a shoulder injury. That's a massive step back from his .290/.357/.507 rookie year. ZiPS is projecting a bounce-back, but how much of one?

The rotation looks good on paper: Greene, Abbott, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Chase Burns. ZiPS sees that as the starting five of a 90-win contender. The problem is everything else. The Reds have about $30 million to invest around the edges, especially in the bullpen.

The Handicapping Angle

At +360 for the division, the Reds are intriguing. If the win total comes in around 78.5, I'd lean over. ZiPS has them around .500 right now but with room to add 3 wins with smart bullpen additions. A healthy McLain bounce-back gets them to 80+.

This is a team that could surprise. The pitching is real. The lineup has upside with Elly De La Cruz. At +3000 for the World Series, this is your long-shot flyer if you want one. But I'd stay away from the division play. They're still a tier below the Cubs and Brewers.

Paul Skenes won the Cy Young. Let that sink in. The third Pirates Cy Young winner in franchise history, joining Vern Law (1960) and Doug Drabek (1990). A 1.97 ERA with 216 strikeouts over 32 starts. The kid is a monster.

GM Ben Cherington made it crystal clear: "Skenes is going to be a Pirate in 2026." They're not trading him. Period. The Athletic's Stephen Nesbitt nailed it when he wrote that this offseason is critical because Skenes is four years from free agency. It's time for Bob Nutting to push chips to the center.

The problem? Has Nutting ever pushed chips to the center? This team finished last in the majors in runs (583), home runs (117), and OPS (.655). Except for Henry Davis and Jared Triolo, every returning Pirate finished with a LOWER OPS in 2025 than they did in 2024. That's brutal.

Jared Jones missed all of 2025 after elbow surgery. He's expected back at some point during 2026, which helps the rotation. But that lineup needs a complete overhaul. Cherington says they'll "continue to add to the roster," but we've heard that before from Pittsburgh.

The Handicapping Angle

At +1000 for the division, don't waste your money. The under on their win total is the play. If that number comes in around 77.5, I'm taking the under. This lineup is atrocious. Skenes can't pitch every game. Jones is coming back from surgery. The offense needs to add 100+ runs just to be league average.

The Pirates are building something real around Skenes. But 2026 isn't the year it all comes together. Maybe 2027 or 2028. Right now, bet against them.