Pitchers and catchers reported between February 10 and 13. Full squads arrived by February 17. The first Cactus League games hit on February 20, with all 30 teams in action today. The sportsbooks are posting lines, and the public is already firing blindly.
Most of them will lose. Not because spring training is unbeatable, but because they refuse to treat it differently from regular season baseball. Exhibition games operate under a completely separate set of rules: shorter outings, diluted lineups, unknown bullpen sequencing, and managers who are actively trying to lose by pulling starters after three innings. The bettor who accounts for those variables has a real edge. The bettor who ignores them is donating.
What follows is not a collection of vague tips. This is an operational framework built on three years of logged spring training data, verified scoring trends from both leagues, and a specific five-metric evaluation system I apply to every Cactus and Grapefruit League card.
Before placing a single spring training bet, you need to understand the scoring environment you are operating in. It is materially different from regular season baseball, and the gap between Arizona and Florida is significant enough to affect how you approach totals.
Here is what the aggregate data shows over the last two full spring training cycles:
| Metric | 2024 Spring | 2025 Spring | 2024 Reg. Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Runs Per Game (Both Teams) | 10.6 | 11.0 | 8.6 |
| Cactus League Runs Per Game | ~11.3 | ~11.5 | N/A |
| Grapefruit League Runs Per Game | ~10.0 | ~10.4 | N/A |
| Runs Per Team Per Game | 5.29 | 5.50 | 4.30 |
Spring training games produce roughly 23% more runs than regular season contests. The Cactus League consistently runs hotter than the Grapefruit League, which aligns with historical analysis showing 18% more runs per plate appearance in Arizona versus just 4% more in Florida compared to the regular season. The dry desert air, smaller ballpark dimensions, and higher BABIP (9% above regular season norms in Arizona) all contribute.
This is not trivial. It means a standard total of 9.5 in a Cactus League game is functioning differently than a 9.5 in a Grapefruit League game, and both function differently than a 9.5 in July. Bettors who ignore league context when evaluating totals are starting behind.
General advice is everywhere. Specific, measurable trends are harder to find. Here are three that held up across both recent spring training cycles:
In 2024, the Baltimore Orioles posted a 23-6 spring training record, the best in baseball by a wide margin. They went on to win 91 games and the AL East division title. At the other end, the Chicago White Sox finished 9-20 in spring training and then produced a 41-121 regular season record, the worst in modern MLB history. In 2025, the San Francisco Giants led spring training at 21-6, while the White Sox again bottomed out at 11-19 and the Angels went 11-18. Teams with extreme spring records, above .700 or below .350, showed meaningful correlation with regular season trajectory. The middle of the pack was noise. The tails were signal.
Across 2024-2025, the average Cactus League game produced 11.3-11.5 combined runs. With books typically setting spring training totals between 9.5 and 11.5, Arizona games leaned over more reliably than Florida games, where the 10.0-10.4 average sat closer to the posted number. This held especially in the first two weeks, when starters were limited to two or three innings and bullpens were full of non-roster invitees. The park factors that influence regular season totals are amplified in spring because the quality-of-pitching variable is so much wider.
One of the most durable spring training betting angles tracks back over a decade: non-playoff road teams playing against the prior year's postseason participants covered the run line at a 68.4% clip from 2013 through 2024 (370-171 record). The logic is straightforward. Contenders rest their starters, experiment with lineups, and treat February games as a formality. Non-playoff teams, especially those with young rosters fighting for jobs, bring more intensity. The market systematically underprices that effort gap. This is not a small-sample anomaly. Over 540 qualifying games is a substantial data set.
There is no shortage of spring training analysis online. Most of it amounts to "watch the games and see what happens." That is not a system. This is the five-metric framework I apply to every spring training card, built from tracking these variables across the 2023, 2024, and 2025 exhibition seasons.
The single most predictive variable in a spring training game is how deep each starter will go. The typical buildup schedule runs on a consistent pattern across most organizations:
| Outing | Typical Pitch Count | Typical Innings | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| First start | 25-35 | 1-1.2 | Week 1 (Feb 20-26) |
| Second start | 40-55 | 2-3 | Week 2 (Feb 27-Mar 5) |
| Third start | 55-70 | 3-4 | Week 3 (Mar 6-12) |
| Fourth start | 70-85 | 4-5 | Week 4 (Mar 13-19) |
| Fifth start | 85-100 | 5-6+ | Week 5 (Mar 20-26) |
After March 14, MLB mandates that spring training games go the full nine innings (earlier games are often seven). That structural shift, combined with starters stretching into the 70-85 pitch range, means the final two weeks of spring training are a fundamentally different betting product than the first two weeks. Teams announce starting pitchers 1-2 days in advance. Cross-reference who is starting, what outing number they are on, and you can estimate how many innings of quality pitching each side gets before the bullpen takes over. When one team has an ace on his fourth outing throwing 80 pitches and the other has a back-end guy on his second outing throwing 45, you have an actionable edge.
I track how many projected regular-season starters are in the lineup for each game. This information is usually available 60-90 minutes before first pitch via beat reporters and team social media accounts. A lineup with six or seven regulars is a meaningfully different proposition than one with two regulars and seven minor leaguers. I grade lineups on a 1-10 scale based on projected regular season WAR of the players in the starting nine. Games where both teams field strong lineups get my heaviest attention. Games with two diluted lineups get skipped entirely.
Spring training scheduling is uneven. Some teams play back-to-back-to-back. Others get a day off after two games. Teams coming off a rest day tend to field stronger lineups and run their better arms. Teams on their third consecutive game day tend to rest stars and deploy deeper roster options. I flag any team on three-plus consecutive game days as a lineup-quality risk.
Once the starter exits, a spring training game becomes a bullpen audition. The key question is whether the available relievers are legitimate MLB arms or organizational filler. I track which relievers pitch in each game and note whether they are on the projected 26-man roster or fighting for a spot. If a team burned its best three relievers yesterday, the arms available today are likely fringe pieces. That creates a scoring environment closer to a college game than an MLB game, which matters for totals. Our bullpen analysis guide covers these evaluation methods in depth for the regular season, but the principles apply doubly in spring.
Any day a team plays a split-squad doubleheader, both lineups are compromised. I treat every split-squad game as an automatic pass. The data supports this: in 2024, split-squad games produced the widest variance in scoring outcomes of any spring training game type, with combined totals ranging from 3 to 19 runs in the same day for the same organization. There is no reliable way to project which half of a split roster will be competitive. The handful of times I violated this rule in my log, I regretted it.
Beyond the five-metric framework, there are structural variables that create value the market sometimes underweights.
New manager intensity. Teams with first-year skippers played to a combined .538 winning percentage in 2024 spring training, meaningfully above the .500 baseline. New managers push harder in exhibition games because they are establishing expectations and evaluating their roster under competitive conditions. With several managerial changes across baseball this offseason, this angle applies again in 2026.
Young roster battles. Teams with legitimate position battles produce more competitive games. A fringe player trying to make the 26-man roster plays every at-bat like it determines his career. The Athletics, transitioning to Las Vegas with foundation work on their $2 billion domed stadium now complete, have an unusually deep set of roster battles this spring. Clubs like the Cubs (integrating Alex Bregman after his 5-year, $175 million deal), the Dodgers (Kyle Tucker, 4-year, $240 million), and the Orioles (Pete Alonso, 5-year, $155 million) will be running their new additions heavily early, which affects lineup quality assessment.
Strikeout rates drop 8-9% in spring. Historical data shows strikeout rates fall measurably during exhibition games compared to the regular season. Pitchers are working on secondary pitches rather than attacking with their best stuff, and hitters see more hittable fastballs. Combined with the elevated BABIP and the bullpen quality drop, this contributes to the run-scoring inflation documented in the table above.
The optimal window for spring training betting opens around March 14 and runs through the final week before Opening Day. This is when three factors converge:
The market, however, still applies a spring-training discount to these games. The books know that overall spring training handle is low and variance is high, so they keep their lines wider than regular season. That means you can occasionally get regular-season baseball effort at spring-training prices. If you have spent the first three weeks building notes, tracking pitching progressions, logging lineup patterns, and monitoring bullpen usage, this is where the work pays off.
The variance in spring training is real, and no amount of analysis eliminates it entirely. These rules protect your bankroll while you gather intelligence for April:
Spring training is reconnaissance, not conquest. The sharpest MLB bettors use February and March to build the analytical foundation that produces profit during the 162-game regular season. Every game you watch, every pitching line you log, every lineup card you study is ammunition for when the real games begin.
If you are going to bet spring training, bet it with structure. Track the five metrics. Respect the scoring-environment differences between Cactus and Grapefruit. Wait for the late-spring sweet spot before sizing up. And build your trend database now so you have an edge the casual bettor will never replicate.
The 2026 season is shaping up to be one of the most compelling in years. A World Baseball Classic, a CBA expiration in December that could reshape the sport, and dozens of major roster moves that have not been fully priced in yet. Follow our daily picks page as the season develops and we start applying this spring training research to live action.
Is spring training betting profitable?
It can be, but it requires a fundamentally different approach than regular season betting. The variance is higher due to shortened outings, unknown lineups, and diluted bullpens. Historically, the most profitable spring training angle has been backing non-playoff road underdogs against prior-year postseason teams on the run line, which produced a 68.4% cover rate from 2013 through 2024. Overall, the sharp approach is to bet small in February, gather intelligence, and increase sizing during the late-spring window (after March 14) when games more closely resemble regular season baseball.
Do MLB starters pitch full games in spring training?
No. Starters follow a progressive pitch count buildup across spring training. In the first week, most starters throw 25-35 pitches and cover one to two innings. By the second week, that extends to 40-55 pitches and two to three innings. The buildup continues week by week until the final stretch before Opening Day, when starters are typically throwing 85-100 pitches across five to six innings. Games before March 14 are often played to seven innings rather than nine. After March 14, MLB mandates nine-inning games, and starter workloads increase accordingly.
Are Cactus League games higher scoring than Grapefruit League games?
Yes, consistently. Across the 2024-2025 spring training seasons, Cactus League games in Arizona averaged approximately 11.3-11.5 combined runs per game, while Grapefruit League games in Florida averaged 10.0-10.4. Historical analysis shows Arizona exhibition games produce 18% more runs per plate appearance than the regular season average, compared to just 4% more in Florida. The dry desert air aids ball flight, BABIP runs 9% higher, and doubles and triples are 26% more common. This means a total of 10.5 in a Cactus League game has a different probability profile than a 10.5 in a Grapefruit League game.
Should you bet split-squad games in spring training?
No. Split-squad games, where a team divides its roster to play two games simultaneously, produce the most unpredictable outcomes of any spring training game type. Both lineups are diluted, and it is impossible to know in advance which squad gets the stronger half of the pitching staff or position players. In 2024, split-squad games produced combined totals ranging from 3 to 19 runs for the same organization on the same day. There is no reliable analytical framework for projecting split-squad outcomes. The best approach is to pass on these games entirely.