Choosing the Right Bet Type for Every Situation
Every MLB game gives you a choice: bet the moneyline and simply pick the winner, or bet the run line and add a 1.5-run spread to the equation. Most bettors default to one or the other without thinking about it. That's a mistake. Each bet type has situations where it's the sharper play, and knowing which one to use in which spot is worth real money over a full season.
The moneyline is straightforward. You pick the winner of the game. If your team wins by one run or ten runs, you cash the same ticket. The price adjusts based on how likely each team is to win. A heavy favorite might cost you -180 or more; a big underdog might pay +160 or better.
The run line is baseball's version of a point spread, but it's fixed at 1.5 runs for almost every game. The favorite is -1.5 (must win by two or more), and the underdog is +1.5 (can lose by one and still cover). Because you're taking on additional risk with the favorite or getting a cushion with the underdog, the prices shift dramatically compared to the moneyline.
Here's a typical pricing comparison for a moderate favorite:
| Bet Type | Favorite Price | Underdog Price |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -155 | +135 |
| Run Line (-1.5 / +1.5) | +120 | -140 |
Notice what happened. The favorite went from a price you pay (-155) to a price you collect (+120). The underdog went from a payout (+135) to a price you pay (-140). The 1.5-run spread flipped the entire pricing structure. That swing is the entire game when it comes to run line strategy.
Before you can decide between moneyline and run line, you need to understand how MLB games actually end. Baseball is a low-scoring sport with tight margins, and the distribution of win margins tells you exactly how much risk you're taking with the run line.
Nearly three out of every ten baseball games are decided by exactly one run. That's the danger zone for favorite run line bets. When you lay -1.5, you're winning roughly 71% of the games your team wins outright (the 2+ run victories), but you're losing 29% of the time even when your team wins. That's a steep tax.
Conversely, when you take an underdog at +1.5, you're covering every time your team wins outright plus every one-run loss. That's a thick safety net, but the price reflects it.
The favorite run line (-1.5) works best in specific situations where the probability of a multi-run win is elevated above the baseline. Here's what to look for:
When a front-of-rotation starting pitcher faces a fourth or fifth starter, the win margin distribution shifts. Top starters don't just win more often; they win by more. Their ability to suppress scoring through six or seven innings creates separation that gets preserved by the bullpen. Meanwhile, the weaker opposing starter is more likely to leak runs early, padding the lead.
When a lineup ranked in the top five in runs per game faces a below-average pitching staff, blowouts happen at a higher rate. The key metric here is team wRC+ against the opposing pitcher's handedness. If the lineup has a 115+ wRC+ against that arm side and the pitcher's xFIP is north of 4.50, the run line favorite becomes attractive because the potential scoring output is elevated.
A lead only sticks if the bullpen holds it. Teams with top-ten bullpens by ERA or WPA protect multi-run leads at a materially higher rate. If the favorite has a dominant closer and a strong setup man, the probability that a three-run lead in the seventh becomes a two-plus run win goes up significantly. Without the bullpen to back it up, that three-run lead can evaporate in one bad inning.
The sweet spot for favorite run lines is when the moneyline is between -140 and -180. At -140, the run line often flips to plus money, giving you a favorable payout for a team likely to win comfortably. Much heavier than -180, and you're often just buying back to a fair price rather than getting genuine value. Once a moneyline reaches -200 or beyond, the run line is usually just even money or small minus, and the extra risk of the 1.5-run spread isn't adequately compensated.
The +1.5 underdog run line is one of the most misunderstood bets in baseball. On the surface, it looks like a safety play: take the dog and get 1.5 runs of protection. But it's more nuanced than that.
When an underdog has a quality starter on the mound (sub-3.80 xFIP, 15%+ K-BB%), the game is likely to stay close. These pitchers keep their team in the game through five or six innings, meaning that even in a loss, the margin is typically one or two runs. The +1.5 covers in those spots at a high rate.
When the total is set at 7.5 or lower, you're looking at a game the market expects to be tight. Low totals correlate with one-run outcomes. If the underdog is going to lose, a low-scoring environment makes a one-run loss the most probable outcome. That means the +1.5 covers even in defeat.
Teams within the same division play each other 13 times per season (in a balanced schedule era). Familiarity breeds close games. Division rivals know each other's pitching staffs, tendencies, and bullpen tendencies intimately. The result is that divisional games produce one-run outcomes at a higher rate than interleague or non-division games. Underdog +1.5 in divisional matchups has historically been one of the stronger situational spots in baseball.
There are plenty of situations where you should skip the run line entirely and just bet the moneyline. The run line adds variance. Sometimes you want that variance (when you're getting paid for it). Other times, you don't.
When the moneyline is in the -110 to -135 range, the game is essentially a coin flip with a slight lean. The run line favorite in these spots often prices around +140 to +160, which looks attractive, but the win-by-two probability for a team that's barely favored is only around 38-42%. The moneyline gives you the cleaner bet with less variance. You're not overpaying for juice, and you don't need your team to blow out the opponent.
If the favorite has a shaky bullpen or is missing its closer, the moneyline is safer than the run line. Late-inning volatility turns two-run leads into one-run wins. The team still wins, but you lose the run line. When bullpen reliability is in question, take the moneyline and sidestep the margin risk.
In games where weather creates scoring uncertainty (wind blowing out, extreme heat, altitude), game flow becomes unpredictable. A team might score eight runs and win by five, or they might score eight runs and win by one. Weather-inflated games produce erratic margins. In those spots, the moneyline lets you participate in the outcome without guessing the margin.
Some books offer alternate run lines at -2.5 or +2.5, and occasionally even -3.5 and +3.5. These are niche plays, but they have their spots.
| Alternate Line | Best Situation | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Favorite -2.5 | Massive pitching mismatch, elite offense, plus-money payout | High. Only ~38% of all wins are by 3+. |
| Underdog +2.5 | A solid team catching a bad price, where you want maximum coverage | Low. Covers unless it's a blowout loss. |
The favorite -2.5 is a long shot that occasionally presents value in extreme mismatches. Think a Cy Young contender at home against a spot-starter on a bad team. But these situations are rare, and the hit rate is low enough that you need to be very selective.
The underdog +2.5 is essentially a blowout insurance policy. You're betting that your team either wins or doesn't get embarrassed. The price is usually steep (heavy juice), but in specific situations like letdown spots or end-of-series games, the coverage can be worth the vig.
The F5 run line is a subset worth mentioning. It's a -0.5 or +0.5 spread through the first five innings only, essentially a "who's winning at halftime" bet. This is directly tied to starting pitcher quality because the bullpen is mostly out of the equation.
F5 favorite -0.5 is a strong play when you trust the starter but not the bullpen. You're betting that your pitcher holds the opponent down for five frames while his offense scratches across enough runs to lead. It isolates the starter's impact and removes the variable that most often costs favorite bettors: the bullpen meltdown.
This bet also removes late-game managerial decisions from the equation. No intentional walks, no questionable pitching changes, no pinch-hitting gambles. Just five innings of starter-driven baseball.
Track your results by bet type. After 100+ bets in each category (moneyline, run line favorite, run line underdog, F5), you'll see patterns in where your analysis translates to profit and where it leaks. Most handicappers find they're significantly better at one bet type than the others. Once you know your strength, lean into it. Smart bankroll allocation means putting more volume where your edge is biggest.
Here's how to decide between bet types for any given game:
This isn't a formula you apply mechanically. It's a framework for thinking through the decision. Every game is different, and the goal is to pick the bet type that gives you the best price for the outcome you're most confident in.
Run line and moneyline are not interchangeable. Each one is the right tool for a specific job. Heavy favorites belong on the run line when pitching mismatches and bullpen quality support a multi-run win. Underdogs belong on the +1.5 when the game profiles as low-scoring and competitive. Moderate favorites belong on the moneyline where the price is clean and the margin risk isn't worth taking. Match the bet type to the situation, and your bankroll will thank you.
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Last Updated: January 26, 2026