Five plays tonight quoted as 7 units. The card actually risks 9.27, because every figure on it is units to win rather than units at risk, and one ticket eats nearly a third of that on its own. The Los Angeles Angels team total under 3.5 at -148 costs 2.96 units to win 2. That is 31.9 percent of the night sitting on one lineup being held to three runs. The sizing ladder is the story again, so start there rather than with Tyler Glasnow or Paul Skenes.
Every price above is the price taken. Nothing is rounded, shaded, or shown at a better number than the one on the ticket. Units are to win, except on a plus number where the figure is what is risked, which is why leg 3 reads the way it does. Ten of the fifteen games on tonight's schedule are being passed entirely.
Four of the five prices are negative and three of them need better than 58 percent on their own. The single plus number on the board is also the smallest position. That combination is worth staring at before any individual argument, because it is the opposite of how most people would build a card if they were choosing stake sizes deliberately rather than quoting them to win.
| Leg | Price | Break even | Risk | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels team total under 3.5 | -148 | 59.68 percent | 2.96 units | 2.00 |
| Yankees moneyline | -140 | 58.33 percent | 2.10 units | 1.50 |
| Brewers and Mets under 7.5 | -115 | 53.49 percent | 1.73 units | 1.50 |
| Dodgers moneyline | -148 | 59.68 percent | 1.48 units | 1.00 |
| Pirates and Padres under 7 | +105 | 48.78 percent | 1.00 unit | 1.05 |
| Card total | 56.80 percent | 9.27 units | 7.05 |
Risk 9.27 to win 7.05 and the whole card comes out flat at 56.80 percent. A 3-2 night loses money on every combination except the one where both moneylines and the plus number land. There is no version of this day where three out of five feels good.
Gavin Williams brings a 3.72 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 11.70 strikeouts per nine into Anaheim across 154.2 innings and 26 starts. Opponents are hitting .211 against him. That last number is the one that matters most for a team total, because a team total under is decided by how often the lineup puts anybody on base at all, not by whether the pitcher's ERA is 3.72 or 3.20.
The Angels are hitting .236 with a .684 OPS and they have struck out 1,244 times, more than any other club on tonight's card. They score 4.08 runs a game and they are 29-37 at home. A lineup that makes that little contact against a starter who misses that many bats is the entire ticket.
| Input | Number |
|---|---|
| Angels runs per game | 4.08 |
| Angels team OPS | .684 |
| Angels strikeouts, season | 1,244 |
| Williams ERA / WHIP | 3.72 / 1.09 |
| Williams strikeout rate | 11.70 per nine |
| Williams opponent average | .211 |
| Price / break even | -148 / 59.68 percent |
The argument against it is the price and nothing else. Almost sixty percent is what the book charges for a read this legible, and the ticket is a bet that even the proper charge leaves something on the table. At 2.96 units of risk, being roughly right is not enough here.
Same game, and it is a fair question. Walbert Urena starts for the Angels with a 2.80 ERA across 21 starts and 112.2 innings, which is the lowest ERA of any starter on tonight's board. Cleveland scores 4.02 runs a game. Backing the Guardians to win means backing that offense to solve that arm.
The team total asks for one thing. The moneyline asks for two. When only one of them is a real opinion, take the one you actually have.
Urena's flaw is on the record though: 4.71 walks per nine behind a 1.24 WHIP is a pitcher who has been working around traffic all season rather than avoiding it. That is the case for Cleveland and it is not on this card.
Pittsburgh and San Diego under 7 at +105, risking exactly 1 unit. A seven is a low number and getting plus money on one is unusual enough to be the reason this ticket exists at all.
| Paul Skenes | Michael King | |
|---|---|---|
| Starts / innings | 26 / 139.0 | 26 / 149.0 |
| ERA | 3.95 | 3.38 |
| WHIP | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Strikeouts per nine | 11.07 | 7.73 |
| Walks per nine | 2.65 | 3.50 |
| Opponent average | .229 | .217 |
San Diego scores 4.29 runs a game with a .706 OPS in a park that has taken runs off the board all season. Pittsburgh scores more, 4.93 a game, but strikes out more than anybody on this card at 1,262. Both starters carry a WHIP under 1.20.
King's walk rate is the flaw and it is the flaw that matters most on a seven. Low totals do not usually die on a home run, they die on a walk, a single, another walk, and a two out double in the fifth. Skenes at 2.65 per nine is the clean half of this game.
Milwaukee and New York under 7.5 at -115 for 1.5 units, and both starters have an ERA under 3.10.
Kyle Harrison has 20 starts, 98.1 innings, a 2.84 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, with 11.17 strikeouts and 2.38 walks per nine and a .223 opponent average. A pitcher who neither hands out free bases nor allows good contact is the ideal arm to bet an under behind. Zac Thornton answers with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across nine starts, though his 6.44 strikeout rate is less than half of Harrison's and nine starts is not a sample anybody should lean on hard.
New York scores 4.17 runs a game with a .698 OPS. Milwaukee scores 4.96 and is 36-26 on the road, which is why this is 1.5 units and not the biggest ticket. This is one cold lineup and one warm one, not two cold ones.
New York at -140 for 1.5 units. Ethan Pecko has thrown 3.2 innings in the major leagues, all of them in one start, with a 1.64 WHIP and a 7.36 walk rate. That is the entire major league record.
Behind him is a Houston staff carrying a 4.63 ERA that has allowed 173 home runs, the worst pitching on this card by both measures. The Yankees have hit 179 home runs and their own staff owns a 3.20 ERA, the best number in this game by a wide margin.
Will Warren is the honest counterargument. A 4.43 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and a .267 opponent average is not a line anybody wants to lay a price behind. New York wins this ticket on depth, not on the starter, and 58.33 percent is a real number to clear when the man on the mound has been below average all year.
Los Angeles moneyline at -148 for 1 unit, and the size is the point. Tyler Glasnow owns the two best numbers on the entire board: a 0.83 WHIP and a .149 opponent average across seven starts and 39.2 innings, behind a 2.72 ERA. The Dodgers score 4.98 runs a game with a .761 OPS, the best offense here, against a starter in Bryce Elder who has allowed 22 home runs in 137.2 innings.
Atlanta is 42-23 at home. That is a .646 home winning percentage, the second best in the sport, and it is why this is one unit rather than two. Seven starts of Glasnow is also a small sample even when the shape of it is not ambiguous.
The correlation. Three of the five legs are the same idea: a quiet offense stays quiet. The Citi Field under, the Petco under and the Angels team total total 4.73 of the 9.27 units at risk. One loud league wide night takes all three.
Two small samples. Glasnow has seven starts and Thornton has nine. Both look excellent inside those samples and neither sample is evidence.
King's walk rate on a seven. Three and a half free bases per nine into the lowest total on the board.
The price on the two -148s. Both need close to 60 percent, and together they carry 4.44 of the 9.27 units.
Will Warren. The Yankees leg assumes the Houston starter is the problem. If Warren gives up four in three, Pecko only has to be adequate.
Five plays, 9.27 units at risk, 7.05 to win, break even 56.80 percent. The largest position is the Angels team total under 3.5 at 2.96 units and the smallest is the only plus number on the board. Yesterday's seven leg card graded 6-1 for plus 5.59 units, which is exactly the moment a card starts getting bigger than it should. This one is smaller.
The Los Angeles Angels team total under 3.5 at -148, 2 units to win and 2.96 units at risk. That is 31.9 percent of the day's exposure on one lineup being held to three runs against Gavin Williams, who strikes out 11.70 per nine and holds opponents to a .211 average.
Because the card is quoted in units to win rather than units at risk. On a plus price the figure quoted is what is risked, so a 1 unit play at +105 costs 1 unit and returns 1.05. On a minus price the stake scales up with the juice, which is why the two -148 legs carry 4.44 units of risk between them.
The Yankees moneyline at -140. The case rests almost entirely on Houston's starter having a 3.2 inning major league record, and the pitcher answering for New York carries a 4.43 ERA with a .267 opponent average. Laying 58.33 percent behind that is the least comfortable position on the card.