Fifteen games are on the board tonight and thirteen of them have two names attached. The Athletics at Kansas City has one. The White Sox at Wrigley Field has one. Six of the fifteen units on this card are sitting inside those two blank spaces, which sounds reckless until you look at what fills a blank space in the middle of August. A blank space is a bullpen, and a bullpen has a number.
Nine plays today. Fifteen units, a unit weighted break even of 57.38 percent, and no plus price anywhere on the ticket. The card risks 15 to win 11.32. That shape tells you what kind of day this is before you read a word of the analysis: this is a lay day, and lay days get graded on whether the favorites were bought at the right number rather than on whether they were bought at all.
THE TWO GAMES WITH ONE NAME ON THEM
Kansas City has not named a starter. That is the whole reason the number is only -156 against a club sitting at 49-76, and it is the reason there is a second ticket in the same game.
Take the Royals side first. The relief group they are handing this game to has a 5.24 earned run average across 441 innings, which is bad, and it is also fresher than almost anything else on the board. Kansas City's bullpen has thrown 6.33 innings across the last three days, and on August 16 it threw none at all. Only the Yankees, Brewers and Mariners have been leaned on less over that stretch, and three of those four clubs had an off day inside it. Kansas City did not.
On the other side is Jack Perkins, and Perkins is the sort of pitcher who breaks a scouting shortcut. He misses bats, genuinely: 94 strikeouts in 376 batters faced is a 25.0 percent rate, and his strikeout minus walk separation of 16.5 points ranks sixth among the fourteen announced starters tonight, ahead of Carlos Rodón and Shane Baz. The earned run average is 7.27 anyway. Sixteen home runs in 81.2 innings is 1.76 per nine, and on August 1 he gave up three of them in 5.1 innings while striking out nine in the same outing. On August 12 he was hit for twelve hits and six earned runs in five innings on 97 pitches. His four seamer at 93.3 and his sweeper at 84.2 make up 62.6 percent of everything he throws, and the sweeper is where the damage lives.
Kansas City hits at home. The Royals have scored 286 runs in 60 games at Kauffman Stadium, 4.77 per game, on a .263 average and a .754 OPS, against 236 runs in 66 road games. That home split is the second ticket in this game. Kauffman is 347 down the left field line and 344 down the right, the second deepest pair of corners on tonight's board, and a park that shaped that way turns hard contact into doubles and triples rather than souvenirs. Two bullpens at 5.24 and 5.70 covering most of nine innings in a park with those alleys is how a total of 9 gets cleared.
The honest counterpoint
The Athletics have scored 230 runs in 62 road games. That is 3.71 per game on a .223 average and a .647 OPS, the weakest travelling offense on the board by a distance, and it is being asked to hold up half of an over. Kansas City is 22-44 away from home, which says the Royals are a park effect as much as a team, and a park effect is a fragile thing to lay 2.5 units on. If Perkins gives Oakland five clean innings, the whole game changes shape and both tickets in it are in trouble at once. That correlation is real and it is the reason the over is only a single unit.
WRIGLEY, WHERE THE BLANK SPACE FACES GAUSMAN
The second unannounced game is the more comfortable one, and it is the largest single position on the card alongside the Royals.
Chicago has scored 652 runs, more than any club playing tonight, and 319 of them have come in 63 games at Wrigley Field. That is 5.06 a game with a .778 home OPS and 536 walks on the season, the most of any team on the board. An offense that walks that much is the wrong offense to put a committee of relievers in front of, and the White Sox have to do exactly that.
Gausman is a two pitch starter and he does not hide it. The four seamer at 94.0 goes 51.2 percent of the time, the splitter at 84.2 goes 38.0 percent, and the slider and changeup together account for barely a tenth of his work. That arsenal has produced 138 strikeouts and 38 walks in 588 batters faced, a separation of 17.0 points, fifth best among tonight's announced arms. The 4.53 earned run average behind it is real and it comes from home runs, 17 of them, in a rotation that has given up 119 as a group. On August 13 he was charged with six earned in 4.2 innings. On August 7 he went seven and gave up two.
The honest counterpoint
The White Sox are 65-59 and have scored 599 runs, third most among tonight's clubs, with 166 home runs. They are also 28-35 on the road against 37-24 at home, and Chicago's staff has surrendered 191 home runs, the most in this group. Wrigley plays 355 to left and 353 to right, the deepest corners on the board, which helps, but a 4.53 starter against a lineup with that much power at -169 is a price that leaves no room for a bad first inning. The White Sox bullpen has also thrown 12.67 innings in three days across ten appearances, so whoever they open with is not walking into a rested relief corps.
THE THREE TICKETS BOUGHT ON A KNOWN ARM
Wheeler is the best arm on the board and the Marlins team total is the cleanest expression of that. He has struck out 137 and walked 29 in 454 batters faced across 115.1 innings, a 1.00 WHIP, a 2.89 earned run average and a .205 opponent average. He works off a 95.2 mph four seamer 35.3 percent of the time and backs it with a splitter at 87.3 and a sinker at 94.7 in roughly equal shares. Miami has scored 278 runs in 63 road games, 4.41 a game, and the ask here is to hold that under four exactly once.
Boston at -162 is a starter mismatch, plainly stated. Ranger Suarez has a 3.25 earned run average with 110 strikeouts against 31 walks and six home runs allowed in 108 innings, a 0.50 rate that is the lowest of any starter tonight. Merrill Kelly has a 5.11 with 25 home runs allowed in 125 innings, 1.80 per nine, and a strikeout minus walk separation of 5.4 points that is the worst on the board by five full points. Behind them the gap widens: Boston's relief corps has a 2.95 earned run average across 469.2 innings against Arizona's 4.18. Kelly was charged with six earned in five innings on August 12 and gave up two home runs doing it.
The Milwaukee game is the largest under on the card and it is a two arm bet. Kyle Harrison and Bryce Miller rank second and third in strikeout minus walk separation among tonight's starters at 23.4 and 20.5, and they are pitching against each other. Miller has walked 16 hitters in 331 batters faced, a 4.8 percent rate. Harrison threw five innings of one hit ball with ten strikeouts on 69 pitches on August 5. Seattle has scored 489 runs on the season, fewest of any club playing tonight, and hits .238 with a .694 OPS on the road. Both bullpens are rested off Monday off days, five innings of work apiece in three days, which matters for an under because a rested pen gets used properly rather than survived.
The honest counterpoint on all three
Wheeler has not been Wheeler lately. He was charged with five earned runs in three innings on July 27, threw a 32 pitch, two inning outing on August 2 that reads like a pitcher being protected, needed 116 pitches to get through 5.1 with five walks on August 7, and gave up four earned in five on August 12. Miami also hits right handed pitching better than it hits left, .255 with a .740 OPS. Arizona owns the best mark against left handed pitching of any club tonight at .276 and a .786 OPS, and Boston is starting a lefty at -162 while sitting 30-31 at Fenway and 3-7 in its last ten. Milwaukee has scored 321 runs in 63 home games, 5.10 per game, which is the highest home rate on the board and the obvious problem with a 7.5.
THE THREE CHEAP TICKETS
Rodón is the most interesting name on the card and the smallest ticket on it, which is the correct pairing. He was placed on the 15-day injured list on July 3 with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to June 30. He pitched a rehab game for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on August 8, another for Somerset on August 13, and the Yankees activated him this morning. His last major league pitch was thrown on June 28 against Boston, five scoreless innings on 96 pitches with four walks.
The season line underneath that is nine starts, 46.1 innings, a 3.30 earned run average and a .195 opponent average, with 52 strikeouts against 26 walks. That walk rate, 13.4 percent, is the highest of any starter working tonight. New York's staff carries a 3.26 earned run average, best on the board, and its bullpen has thrown 5.34 innings in three days with Monday off. Baltimore counters with Shane Baz, who threw eight innings of two run ball on August 7 and then got knocked out after three innings and nine hits on August 12. At -109 in a divisional road game with a pitcher returning from seven weeks away, a single unit is the honest size.
The two remaining unders are cheap for a reason. San Diego and New York have scored 536 and 525 runs, hit .238 and .236, and their bullpens sit at 3.58 and 3.70. Robbie Ray and Zac Thornton both walk more than they should, which is the risk in an under, and Ray issued five free passes in five innings on August 7. Tampa Bay is a different sort of ticket. Nick Martinez has walked 20 hitters in 552 batters faced, a 3.6 percent rate that is the lowest of any starter tonight, and he threw a complete game on August 11 on 101 pitches without a walk. Toronto has scored 492 runs, second fewest here, and 240 in 60 road games. Tropicana Field is a dome with a 404 foot right center field, which removes weather from the calculation entirely.
The counterpoint on Tampa Bay is a specific one and it is not small. Martinez has allowed 16 home runs in 138 innings, and on July 31 four of them left the yard against him in a single six inning start. He strikes out 14.1 percent of the hitters he faces, the lowest rate on the board, so every ball is in play and the Rays bullpen has already thrown 14 innings across eleven appearances in the last three days, more than any relief group playing tonight.
CARD SUMMARY
| Play | Line | Units | Break-Even | What The Price Buys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins Team Total Under | 3.5 (-142) | 1.5 | 58.7% | Wheeler 30.2% K rate, 6.4% BB rate, .205 opponent average |
| Padres/Mets Under | 8.5 (-110) | 1.0 | 52.4% | Two offenses at 536 and 525 runs; bullpens at 3.58 and 3.70 |
| New York Yankees Moneyline | -109 | 1.0 | 52.2% | Rodón activated today; Yankees staff 3.26 ERA, best on the board |
| Blue Jays/Rays Under | 7.5 (-115) | 1.5 | 53.5% | Martinez 3.6% walk rate; Toronto 492 runs; dome, no weather |
| Kansas City Royals Moneyline | -156 | 2.5 | 60.9% | Perkins 7.27 ERA and 1.76 HR/9; Royals 4.77 runs per home game |
| Athletics/Royals Over | 9 (-110) | 1.0 | 52.4% | Bullpens at 5.24 and 5.70; Kauffman corners at 347 and 344 |
| Boston Red Sox Moneyline | -162 | 2.0 | 61.8% | Suarez 0.50 HR/9 against Kelly 1.80; Boston bullpen 2.95 ERA |
| Mariners/Brewers Under | 7.5 (-105) | 2.0 | 51.2% | Harrison and Miller rank second and third in K minus BB tonight |
| Chicago Cubs Moneyline | -169 | 2.5 | 62.8% | Cubs 652 runs and 536 walks against an unannounced starter |
Yesterday's two ticket card went 2-0 for plus 2.85 units, Kansas City winning 9-5 and Boston 11-1, and the temptation after a clean day is to press the same names harder. Two of today's nine plays do sit on those same two clubs. The reason has nothing to do with yesterday. Kansas City is on the card because Jack Perkins gives up 1.76 home runs per nine and the Royals score 4.77 a game at home, and Boston is on it because Merrill Kelly gives up 1.80 and Ranger Suarez gives up 0.50. Those numbers were true on Sunday and they will be true tomorrow.
What makes this card unusual is the willingness to put six units into two games where one lineup card is still blank. The market discounts uncertainty by widening the price, and a widened price on a bullpen game is only a bargain when you know which bullpen is fresher and which one is worse. Tonight both answers point the same direction in Kansas City and both point the same direction at Wrigley. That is the read, and it is checkable by first pitch.
CARD FAQ
How many plays are on the August 18 sharp money card?
Nine, totaling 15 units. Marlins team total under 3.5 at -142 for 1.5 units, Padres/Mets under 8.5 at -110 for 1 unit, Yankees moneyline at -109 for 1 unit, Blue Jays/Rays under 7.5 at -115 for 1.5 units, Royals moneyline at -156 for 2.5 units, Athletics/Royals over 9 at -110 for 1 unit, Red Sox moneyline at -162 for 2 units, Mariners/Brewers under 7.5 at -105 for 2 units, and Cubs moneyline at -169 for 2.5 units.
Why does the card have so much money in games without an announced starter?
Because an unannounced starter is usually a bullpen game, and a bullpen game is priced off the relief corps behind it. Kansas City hands the ball to a relief group carrying a 5.24 earned run average, but the Athletics counter with a 5.70 bullpen and Jack Perkins, whose 7.27 ERA and 1.76 home runs per nine are the worst marks among tonight's fourteen announced starters. The White Sox go unannounced at Wrigley Field against Kevin Gausman and 25 starts of 4.53 baseball.
What is the unit weighted break even on this card?
57.38 percent. The nine prices run from -105 to -169 with no plus number anywhere, and the card risks 15 units to win 11.32.
What is the strongest argument against the card?
The Athletics have scored 230 runs in 62 road games, 3.71 per game on a .647 road OPS, which is the weakest travelling offense on the board and it sits underneath an over. Kansas City is 22-44 away from Kauffman Stadium and is being laid at -156 anyway. Milwaukee has scored 321 runs in 63 home games, 5.10 per game, and the card wants that game under 7.5.