Two Whole Number Run Lines Carry 47.8 Percent Of The Risk

Four plays today and the shape is unusual twice over. Quoted as 8.5 units to win, the ladder puts 12.45 units on the counter and needs 59.43 percent to break even. The single biggest ticket is not a side at all, it is a first five innings under in Pittsburgh at 4.62 units of risk, and two of the other three are run lines set at a whole number, which is a market most American books will not show you.

THE CARD

Giants vs Pirates First Five Innings Pick

Athletics vs Rangers Run Line Pick

Blue Jays vs Guardians Run Line Pick

Mets vs Rays Pick

Every price above is the price taken. Records going in: San Francisco 57-81, Pittsburgh 67-71, the Athletics 53-85, Texas 68-70, Toronto 68-70, Cleveland 69-68, the Mets 62-76 and Tampa Bay 82-55.

THE STAKE LADDER

Units are quoted to win, never to risk. A 3 unit play at minus 154 does not put 3 units on the counter, it puts 4.62 there to collect 3. Run all four out and the ladder looks like this.

Risk by leg

Giants and Pirates first five under 4.5, minus 154, 3 units to win. Risk 4.62. That is 37.1 percent of the day on one ticket.
Rangers minus 1, minus 160, 2.5 units to win. Risk 4.00, or 32.1 percent.
Guardians minus 1, minus 130, 1.5 units to win. Risk 1.95, or 15.7 percent.
Rays moneyline, minus 125, 1.5 units to win. Risk 1.88, or 15.1 percent.

Total risk 12.45 units to collect 8.50. Break even is 12.45 divided by 20.95, which is 59.43 percent. Leg by leg the prices need 60.63 percent at minus 154, 61.54 at minus 160, 56.52 at minus 130 and 55.56 at minus 125. Two of the four sit above 60 percent, which is what happens when the two largest tickets are both laid rather than taken.

WHERE THE RISK ACTUALLY SITS

The two biggest tickets, the first five under and the Rangers run line, are 69.2 percent of the counter between them. The other two combined are 30.8 percent. That is top heavy, and top heavy is a decision, not an accident.

What is different today is the failure mode. Yesterday's concentration was single game: almost half the card sat on nine innings in Arlington. Today the biggest ticket is not nine innings anywhere, it is five. The first five under 4.5 is decided by the time the sixth starts and both bullpens are irrelevant to it. That is a shorter and cleaner exposure than any full game bet on the card, and it is also unrescuable. There is no late innings comeback available to a first five ticket.

The four legs are not correlated to each other. A first five under in Pittsburgh, a road favourite run line in Arlington, a home favourite run line in Cleveland and a home moneyline in Tampa. No single league wide condition takes all four. A high scoring afternoon hurts the under and does nothing to the two run lines except help them.

WHY TWO OF THESE ARE MINUS 1 AND NOT MINUS 1.5

This is a pricing argument, not a baseball argument. A run line at minus 1 is a whole number. The favourite must win by two or more to collect. A win by exactly one is a push and the stake comes back rather than burning.

Almost every American book jumps straight from the moneyline to minus 1.5 and stops. On minus 1.5 every one run win is a loss. One run margins are the single most common result in baseball, so that is not a small piece of the distribution to be handing away. The whole number costs less than the moneyline on the same opinion and refunds the most common margin instead of losing it.

A note on availability. Minus 1 is not a mainstream American market. DraftKings and FanDuel print minus 1.5 and nothing between it and the moneyline. Cleveland at minus 1 is quoted here at minus 130 and Texas at minus 1 at minus 160 because those are the prices that were there.

The cost of stacking two of them is a shape worth naming out loud. Two whole number tickets on the same day means two ways for the card to end with a refund instead of a result. A day where both run lines push and the first five under misses is a losing day even if Tampa Bay wins.

WHAT A LOSING DAY LOOKS LIKE

Worth doing before the games rather than after. Four legs and the outcomes that matter are these.

All four win: plus 8.50 units.
Pittsburgh wins, the other three lose: 3.00 minus 7.83, a loss of 4.83.
Pittsburgh loses, the other three win: 5.50 minus 4.62, a gain of 0.88.
Both run lines push, the other two split: the day turns on the under alone.
All four lose: minus 12.45 units.

The second and third lines are the whole story of a 37 percent concentration. Getting the biggest ticket right and everything else wrong is a four unit loss. Getting the biggest ticket wrong and everything else right still finishes green, barely. That is a healthier shape than yesterday's, where the small legs could not rescue the day at all.

TIMING, PLAINLY

All four were logged before first pitch. The earliest games on the card start at 6:40 Eastern and the ladder was complete before that. Nothing to disclose.

Yesterday's four leg card graded 2-2 and still made 0.78 units, because the two winners were the three unit Rangers run line and the 1.5 unit Astros moneyline while the two losers were the small under and a moneyline priced at minus 168. A .500 record and a green day, which is the same argument today's ladder is built on.