One Run Line Carries 46.7 Percent Of The Risk

Four plays today, all four priced, all four favourites of one kind or another. Quoted as seven units to win, the ladder actually puts 10.59 units on the counter and needs 60.20 percent to break even. That break even is the highest of any card this week, and the reason is a single ticket: Texas at minus 1 on the run line, 4.95 units of risk, 46.7 percent of the entire day sitting on one game in Arlington.

THE CARD

Athletics vs Rangers Run Line Pick

White Sox vs Astros Pick

Mariners vs Red Sox Total Pick

Mets vs Rays Pick

Every price above is the price taken. Records going in: the Athletics 53-84, Texas 67-70, the White Sox 72-64, Houston 69-68, Seattle 64-73, Boston 74-63, the Mets 61-76 and Tampa Bay 82-54.

THE STAKE LADDER

Units are quoted to win, never to risk. A 3 unit play at minus 165 does not put 3 units on the counter, it puts 4.95 there to collect 3. Run all four out and the ladder looks like this.

Risk by leg

Rangers minus 1, minus 165, 3 units to win. Risk 4.95. That is 46.7 percent of the day on one ticket.
Rays moneyline, minus 168, 1.5 units to win. Risk 2.52, or 23.8 percent.
Astros moneyline, minus 128, 1.5 units to win. Risk 1.92, or 18.1 percent.
Red Sox and Mariners Under 8, minus 120, 1 unit to win. Risk 1.20, or 11.3 percent.

Total risk 10.59 units to collect 7.00. Break even is 10.59 divided by 17.59, which is 60.20 percent. Leg by leg the prices need 62.26 percent at minus 165, 62.69 at minus 168, 56.14 at minus 128 and 54.55 at minus 120. Three of the four sit above 56 percent, and that is what a card made of favourites costs.

WHERE THE RISK ACTUALLY SITS

Two tickets, the Rangers run line and the Rays moneyline, are 70.5 percent of the counter between them. The other two combined are 29.5 percent. That is a top heavy card, and top heavy is a decision, not an accident.

The useful thing about this shape is that it is not correlated. Yesterday's ladder had three unders pointing the same direction for two thirds of the risk, and a high scoring league wide afternoon would have taken most of it at once. Today the four legs are a road favourite run line, a home moneyline, a home moneyline and a total. There is no single league wide condition that kills all four. A day of offense hurts the Fenway under and helps nothing else. A day of pitching helps the under and does nothing for the two moneylines.

The concentration risk here is single game rather than single theme. Almost half the day depends on nine innings in Arlington. If that game goes sideways early, the day is a loser before the other three have finished the fourth inning. That is the trade being made and it should be stated rather than smoothed over.

WHY THE BIGGEST TICKET IS A RUN LINE AND NOT A MONEYLINE

This is the part worth reading twice, because it is a pricing argument, not a baseball argument. Texas on the moneyline is minus 200. Texas at minus 1 is minus 165. Both bets need Texas to win. The run line adds one requirement, a margin of two or more, and in exchange it converts every one run Texas win from a loss into a refund.

To collect 3 units on the moneyline you put up 6.00. To collect 3 units on minus 1 you put up 4.95. That is 1.05 units of exposure saved on the same opinion. What you sell to get it is the one run win, and on a whole number that outcome pushes rather than loses. One run margins were the most common single margin in baseball this season, so this is not a free trade, it is a priced one, and at 35 cents of price difference it is a reasonable one.

A note on availability. Minus 1 is not a mainstream American market. DraftKings and FanDuel jump straight from the moneyline to minus 1.5, which on this game is around plus 106. The minus 1 lives at reduced juice and offshore shops and it is quoted here at minus 165 because that is the price that was there.

WHAT A LOSING DAY LOOKS LIKE

Worth doing before the games rather than after. Four legs, sixteen possible outcomes, and the ones that matter are these.

All four win: plus 7.00 units.
Arlington wins, the other three lose: 3.00 minus 5.64, a loss of 2.64.
Arlington loses, the other three win: 4.00 minus 4.95, a loss of 0.95.
All four lose: minus 10.59 units.

Notice the second and third lines. Getting the biggest play right and everything else wrong still loses money. Getting the biggest play wrong and everything else right very nearly breaks even. That is what a 46.7 percent concentration does to a card: it does not simply make the big leg matter more, it makes the small legs almost unable to rescue the day on their own.

TIMING, PLAINLY

All four were logged before first pitch. The earliest game on the card is Tampa Bay at 6:40 Eastern and the ladder was complete well before that. Yesterday five of seven legs went in late and that was said in plain language here at the time; today there is nothing to disclose.

Yesterday's seven leg card graded 3-4 and still made 1.61 units, because the three winners were the two unit plays and the four losers were the small ones. Same lesson as today's shape, running the other way.