Saturday's baseball card is five tickets, and three of them lean on the same idea: the home team in a building where it has simply been better all year. Padres ML -151 for 3 units, Rays ML -149 for 3 units and Guardians ML -177 for 3 units, with two unders riding along, Blue Jays and Rangers under 7.5 at -110 for 2 units and Royals and Pirates under 8 at -120 for 1.5 units. Everything here is to win, so the whole card risks 18.31 units to win 12.5.
THE CARD AND WHAT EACH PRICE ASKS FOR
| Stake | Pick | Price | Risk | To Win | Break Even | First Pitch (PT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3u | Tampa Bay Rays ML vs Red Sox | -149 | 4.47 | 3.00 | 59.84% | 1:10 PM |
| 3u | Cleveland Guardians ML vs Athletics | -177 | 5.31 | 3.00 | 63.90% | 3:10 PM |
| 1.5u | Royals at Pirates Under 8 | -120 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 54.55% | 3:40 PM |
| 2u | Blue Jays at Rangers Under 7.5 | -110 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 52.38% | 4:05 PM |
| 3u | San Diego Padres ML vs Marlins | -151 | 4.53 | 3.00 | 60.16% | 5:40 PM |
Break even is just the price turned into a win rate. At -151 the Padres have to win this kind of game a bit more than 60 times in 100 for the ticket to pay for itself over the long run, so that's the bar every number below is measured against.
HOME FIELD IS THE THREAD
Here's the split that ties the three moneylines together, straight from MLB's standings feed Saturday morning.
| Team | Record | At Home | On The Road | Last 10 | Run Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 93 and 60 | 53 and 26 | 40 and 34 | 8 and 2 | +78 |
| Boston Red Sox | 84 and 70 | 38 and 37 | 46 and 33 | 5 and 5 | +85 |
| San Diego Padres | 85 and 69 | 47 and 29 | 38 and 40 | 9 and 1 | +36 |
| Miami Marlins | 76 and 78 | 45 and 33 | 31 and 45 | 4 and 6 | +2 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 79 and 75 | 39 and 40 | 40 and 35 | 6 and 4 | -5 |
| Athletics | 61 and 93 | 29 and 46 | 32 and 47 | 4 and 6 | -216 |
The Rays at home are 53 and 26, a .671 clip, which clears the 59.84 percent they need at -149 with room to spare. The Padres are 47 and 29 at Petco, .618 against a 60.16 percent bar, and the Marlins have been a totally different team away from Miami at 31 and 45. Those two are the cleanest reads on the card.
Cleveland is the honest exception. The Guardians are actually a game under .500 at home, 39 and 40, so this one isn't a home field play at all. It's an opponent play. The Athletics are 32 and 47 on the road and have been outscored by 216 runs, the worst differential in this whole set of teams by a mile, and they've dropped four straight.
THE STARTERS
| Game | Away Starter | ERA / WHIP | Home Starter | ERA / WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox at Rays | Not listed yet | Freddy Peralta | 4.67 / 1.34 | |
| Athletics at Guardians | Jacob Lopez | 5.02 / 1.48 | Tanner Bibee | 4.16 / 1.18 |
| Royals at Pirates | Noah Cameron | 3.84 / 1.19 | Bubba Chandler | 4.28 / 1.35 |
| Blue Jays at Rangers | José Soriano | 3.56 / 1.27 | Cal Quantrill | 2.90 / 1.05 |
| Marlins at Padres | Eury Pérez | 3.99 / 1.24 | Casey Mize | 3.69 / 1.14 |
I'll be straight about the Rays side. Freddy Peralta has a 4.67 ERA over 30 starts and has given up 23 homers, and Boston hadn't posted a starter in MLB's feed when this went up. This ticket is about Tampa's 53 and 26 at the Trop, not about the arm. The Rays also lost the series opener to Boston 4 to 2 Friday night, so they're not coming in on a heater.
Cleveland's is a cleaner pitching gap. Bibee's 1.18 WHIP against Lopez at 1.48, with Lopez allowing 20 homers in 114.2 innings. Bibee's 6 and 15 record looks ugly, but the 1.18 WHIP says that's more about run support than the way he's pitched.
THE TWO UNDERS, AND WHAT PUSHES BACK
Blue Jays and Rangers under 7.5 is built on the two starters. Soriano's 3.56 ERA and Quantrill's 2.90 over 14 starts with a 1.05 WHIP. The pushback is real though. Texas home games have gone over 7.5 in 41 of 76 this year, and these two combined for 8 runs Friday in a 7 to 1 Rangers win. Both teams have gone over 7.5 in most of their last ten, 7 of 10 for Toronto and 6 of 10 for Texas.
Royals and Pirates under 8 is the smallest ticket for a reason. PNC has been a hitter's spot for this Pittsburgh team, with 47 of 75 home games going over 8 and an average of 10.15 runs. What I'm leaning on is the Royals side of it. Kansas City's last ten games have averaged 7.4 total runs with 6 unders and 2 pushes, and Noah Cameron brings a 1.19 WHIP over 166.1 innings. Friday's game went 8 to 5 Pirates, 13 runs, so I'm aware of what this park has been doing.
LAST TIME THESE TEAMS MET
The Padres swept the Marlins in Miami in July, 4 to 2, 7 to 2 and 5 to 3, and beat them again 8 to 2 at Petco on Friday. That's four straight wins in this matchup by a combined 24 to 9. Cleveland took two of three from the Athletics in early May and won the Friday opener 5 to 3. Tampa and Boston have split this season, and Boston has won four of the last five meetings, which is the one number on this card that argues hardest against a pick.
Every pick on this card is logged before first pitch on my public record at TrustMyRecord, win or lose.
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