One more ticket on the Friday card, and it rides on the same game as the Yankees moneyline: Yankees team total over 3.5 at -130 for 3 units, 3.9 units at risk. Arizona starts Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 2.62 ERA, so this isn't a fade of a struggling pitcher. It's a bet on how many innings he actually covers, and on what the Yankees have done on the road all year.
THE PRICE AND WHAT IT ASKS FOR
| Stake | Pick | Price | Risk | To Win | Break Even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3u | New York Yankees Team Total Over 3.5 (at Diamondbacks) | -130 | 3.90 | 3.00 | 56.52% |
Four Yankee runs, any way they come, extra innings included. First pitch is 6:40 PM Pacific at Chase Field.
THE ROAD NUMBERS
New York is 88 and 64. On the road the Yankees have scored four or more in 46 of 78 games, 59.0 percent, a little better than their 40 of 74 at home. Across the full season it's 86 of 152, 56.6 percent, which is right at this ticket's break even. The recent run is what pushes it over: 7 of the last 10 and 12 of the last 20, with 5.4 runs a game over the last ten.
| Sample | 4+ runs | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 season | 86 of 152 | 56.6% |
| Road games | 46 of 78 | 59.0% |
| Home games | 40 of 74 | 54.1% |
| Last 20 | 12 of 20 | 60.0% |
| Last 10 | 7 of 10 | 70.0% |
RODRIGUEZ COVERS SIX, NOT NINE
Rodriguez has thrown 178.1 innings in 30 starts, just under six a start. His last six outings ran 6.0, 5.2, 7.0, 5.0, 6.0 and 5.1 innings. So the realistic shape of this game is six innings against a very good lefty and three against a Diamondbacks bullpen with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Arizona's rotation as a whole has a 4.23 ERA, and Rodriguez is the reason that number isn't worse.
He's also been more hittable from one side. Left handed batters have a .267 average and .703 OPS against him, right handers .223 and .649. And the Yankees hit lefties better than righties this season, a .739 OPS against .712.
THE NUMBERS THAT PUSH BACK
- Rodriguez allowed 9 earned runs over his last six starts, 35 innings. Two of those were scoreless: 5.2 innings against Cincinnati and 7 against the Cubs.
- The full season rate is almost exactly break even. Without the road split and the last ten games, this is a pass.
- The Yankees scored two runs in back to back games against the Mets on September 12 and 13. The same lineup that put up 10 in Colorado can go quiet.
- This ticket and the Yankees moneyline live in the same game. If the Yankee bats go cold, both lose together.
Every Best MLB Handicapper play goes on the verified record at trustmyrecord.com before first pitch and gets graded there, win or lose.
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