The Stakes Don't Follow The Prices

Five tickets tonight, 14.69 units at risk to win 10, and here's the thing that jumps off the ladder before you even look at a pitcher: the stakes don't follow the prices. The biggest rung, the Rays moneyline at -173 for 3 units, is also the most expensive price on the card. The smallest rung, the Brewers moneyline at -124 for 1 unit, is the cheapest favorite on the card and has the lowest WHIP of any starter in these four games. That isn't a mistake. Price tells you what the market thinks. The stake tells you how much of the story we trust, and those are two different questions.

THE LADDER, SORTED BY RISK

Every unit figure is to win, so the dollars actually on the line depend on the price. Sorted by what each ticket really risks, the card looks like this.

Rung	Pick	Price	Risk	To Win	Break Even
3u	Tampa Bay Rays ML (vs Athletics)	-173	5.19	3.00	63.37%
2u	San Diego Padres ML (at Rockies)	-162	3.24	2.00	61.83%
2u	Athletics Team Total Under 3.5 (at Rays)	-131	2.62	2.00	56.71%
2u	Dodgers/Reds Under 8.5	-120	2.40	2.00	54.55%
1u	Milwaukee Brewers ML (at Pirates)	-124	1.24	1.00	55.36%
	Card total		14.69	10.00

Three tickets share the 2 unit rung, but they don't share the same exposure. The Padres risk 3.24, the Athletics under 2.62, the Cincinnati under 2.40. And the two Tampa tickets together put 7.81 units, about 53 percent of everything at risk tonight, on one game at Tropicana Field.

RUNG ONE: RAYS ML AND THE ATHLETICS UNDER 3.5

The Rays are 91 and 59, first in the AL East, on a four game winning streak and 8 and 2 over their last ten. They're 51 and 25 at home, a 67.1 percent clip, and the -173 price needs 63.37. They've also beaten the Athletics all four times this season, 10 to 6, 12 to 4 and 8 to 4 in August, then 2 to 1 last night.

The pitching matchup is why this is the top rung. Nick Martinez is 14 and 4 with a 2.92 ERA over 166.1 innings and a 1.07 WHIP, and Tampa is 21 and 7 in his 28 starts. His last one was 6.1 scoreless innings in Atlanta on two hits. The Athletics counter with Brady Basso, who's made 5 starts in 23 appearances with a 3.86 ERA and 37.1 innings total. He hasn't gone more than four innings in any of his last five outings, and hitters are batting .296 off him. So the Athletics bullpen is going to cover most of this game, and that's a staff with a 5.40 ERA on the season.

Now the part I won't gloss over. Martinez has been two different pitchers by venue. On the road it's a 1.99 ERA and a .585 OPS against. At home it's 3.92 and .737. The Rays are still 10 and 4 in his home starts, so the moneyline survives that split fine. The under is where it bites.

The Athletics are a .227 hitting, .658 OPS lineup on the road, and they've been held to three or fewer in 40 of 76 road games, 52.6 percent. The -131 price needs 56.71. In Martinez's 28 starts, opponents have scored three or fewer 17 times, 60.7 percent, but in his 14 home starts it's only 7 times, an even 50. So the base rates straddle the break even rather than clear it, which is exactly why the under is a 2 unit ticket riding next to a 3 unit moneyline and not the other way around. The Athletics managed one run here last night.

Here's what the pair pays in each outcome.

Outcome	Net
Rays win, Athletics held to 3 or fewer	+5.00
Rays win, Athletics score 4 or more	+0.38
Athletics held to 3 or fewer, Rays lose	-3.19
Rays lose, Athletics score 4 or more	-7.81

The legs lean together. When the Athletics are kept to three, the Rays usually don't need much. The one split that genuinely hurts is a low scoring Rays loss, and a 2 to 1 or 3 to 2 night going the wrong way is the realistic version of that.

RUNG TWO: PADRES ML, THE PRICE ASSUMES A DIFFERENT ROBBIE RAY

This is the second biggest risk on the card at 3.24 units, and it has the most going against it of anything we're playing. Start with the good. The Rockies are 56 and 95, 31 and 42 at home, and 2 and 8 over their last ten. Their staff owns a 5.57 ERA, the worst of the eight teams in tonight's games. San Diego is 82 and 69, sitting in the third NL wild card spot, 8 and 2 over their last ten and 9 and 2 against Colorado this year.

Now the bad. Robbie Ray's 3.57 season ERA is mostly a Giants number. He threw 122.2 innings at a 3.08 ERA in San Francisco. In 7 starts for the Padres it's a 5.35 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP and 24 walks in 33.2 innings, and San Diego is 3 and 4 in those games. His last two starts were 2.1 innings and 5 earned runs against the Yankees, then 5 innings and 5 earned in San Francisco. The Padres also got beat 9 to 3 here last night, and they're a 36 and 40 road team.

Mason Adams gives Colorado only four starts of evidence: a 3.38 ERA over 18.2 innings, but a 1.45 WHIP, 5 homers and an .880 OPS against. The Rockies hit .784 OPS at Coors against .704 on the road. At -162 you need 61.83 percent, and the case for clearing it rests on Colorado's pitching and record, not San Diego's starter. That's a 2 unit case, not a 3.

RUNG TWO, CHEAPER: DODGERS/REDS UNDER 8.5

Same 2 units to win, 0.84 less at risk than the Padres. Blake Snell has a 1.91 ERA in 7 starts, 51 strikeouts in 37.2 innings, a .185 average against, and he hasn't allowed a home run all season. On the road it's a .448 OPS against. The Reds have been flattened by this staff lately: in five meetings this month they've scored 3, 2, 1, 1 and 0, and they were shut out 4 to 0 last night.

The honest counterweight is the park. Games at Great American have finished with eight runs or fewer only 36 times in 76, 47.4 percent, and the price needs 54.55. The Reds also hit lefties better than righties, a .744 OPS against .686. And Andrew Abbott is the soft spot: a 4.78 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 24 homers allowed, with 7 earned runs in 2 innings against Milwaukee in his last start. The Dodgers score 405 runs in 76 road games. If the under loses, it's probably because Los Angeles gets to eight or nine by itself. That's the risk we're pricing at 2.40, and why it sits under the Tampa pair.

RUNG THREE: BREWERS ML, THE BEST PRICE ON THE SMALLEST STAKE

On paper this might be the cleanest pitching edge of the night. Logan Henderson has a 2.34 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP over 16 starts, 99 strikeouts in 88.1 innings, and Milwaukee is 12 and 4 when he starts. The Brewers are 94 and 57, 42 and 31 on the road, and have won the last four meetings with Pittsburgh, including 5 to 1 last night.

So why one unit? Because Jared Jones is better than his 4.10 ERA. At PNC Park hitters have a .657 OPS against him, and his last two starts were 13 innings without an earned run, 6 scoreless against the Angels and 7 one hit innings in Chicago. The Pirates are 38 and 35 at home, and Milwaukee's lineup drops from a .781 OPS at home to .715 on the road. And while the Brewers have won four straight in this matchup, Pittsburgh took six of the first seven. At -124 the price needs 55.36, and a coin flip leaning our way is worth a unit, not three.

HOW THE LADDER PLAYS OUT

The shape of the night comes down to Tampa. If both Tampa tickets cash, that's +5.00, which by itself covers a Padres loss and a Brewers loss together, 4.48 units, and still leaves the card in the green. A clean sweep is +10.00. Everything outside Tampa risks 6.88 units to win 5.

The bad night looks like this: Martinez gets his home version, the Athletics string together four, Ray walks his way out of Coors early, and Los Angeles runs up a crooked number on Abbott by itself. Losing all five costs 14.69. That's why the biggest bet on the board is on the most expensive favorite. It's the one where the pitcher, the record, the head to head and the opposing staff all point the same way.