The card is 8 units to win and 9.90 units at risk. Two of the five tickets, the Yankees Game 1 moneyline and the Angels moneyline, are 2 units each. Together they risk 4.92. That is 49.7 percent of the card. The other three tickets are the rest.
| Play | To win | Price | Risk | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees Game 1 ML | 2 | -141 | 2.82 | 28.5% |
| Angels ML | 2 | -105 | 2.10 | 21.2% |
| Brewers and Phillies under 7.5 | 1.5 | -130 | 1.95 | 19.7% |
| Rays and Yankees Game 2 under 6.5 | 1.5 | -115 | 1.73 | 17.5% |
| Red Sox team total under 3.5 | 1 | -130 | 1.30 | 13.1% |
A unit is not a unit once the price is worse than even money. The Yankees ticket wins 2 and risks 2.82. The Angels ticket wins 2 and risks 2.10. Same win target, different bite, because -141 is a heavier favorite than -105.
The heavy ticket
Carlos Rodon is 6 and 3 with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts in 79 innings. He has made 16 starts, so the typical outing is under 5 innings. Nick Martinez is 15 and 4 with a 2.91 ERA across 173.1 innings and only 24 walks. New York is 89 and 66, plus 137 runs, 42 and 32 at home. Tampa Bay is 95 and 60, plus 83, 40 and 34 on the road, and 8 and 2 in its last ten. The better record belongs to the Rays. The price belongs to the Yankees. First pitch was 10:05 AM Pacific.
The other 2 unit ticket
The Angels are 60 and 96, run differential -87, 26 and 49 on the road. The Athletics are 61 and 95, run differential -223, 29 and 46 at home. The gap between those margins is 136 runs, and the price is -105. Yusei Kikuchi is 1 and 6 with a 5.02 ERA in 57.1 innings. Brady Basso is 1 and 3 with a 4.50 ERA in 40 innings. The starters are not the case. The case is that a coin flip price is attached to the less damaged run margin.
Where the smaller tickets sit
Zack Wheeler is 13 and 5 with a 2.99 ERA and 177 strikeouts. Dustin May is 7 and 9 with a 4.61 ERA. Milwaukee is 98 and 58 with a run differential of plus 202. From September 5 through September 20, only 5 of 15 Phillies games and 6 of 14 Brewers games stayed under 7.5. The under is 1.5 units anyway.
Game 2 is under 6.5 at -115. Max Fried has a 2.63 ERA. Drew Rasmussen has a 2.72 ERA. The Yankees were under 6.5 in 2 of their last 14 games. Boston's team total under 3.5 is the smallest ticket, 1.30 at risk. Payton Tolle has a 3.02 ERA. Parker Messick has a 2.57 ERA. Boston scored 3 or fewer in 7 of its last 14 games.
What pushes back
Half the risk is on two moneylines, and one of those games had already started at 10:05 AM Pacific. The Rays have the better record and the pitcher who has thrown 173.1 innings. The Brewers have outscored the league by 202 runs, which is the wrong profile for an under. The Angels are 26 and 49 away from home, with a starter at a 5.02 ERA. Losing the whole card costs 9.90, not 8.
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