The 2026 World Baseball Classic is less than two weeks away, and the futures market is already serving up some fascinating value. With 304 MLB players spread across 19 countries and 78 former All-Stars suiting up, this is the deepest international baseball tournament ever assembled. DraftKings has Team USA installed as the -115 favorite, but if you've been doing this long enough, you know the favorite in a short-format tournament is rarely where the money gets made. Let's break down every pool, every contender, and find where the sharp edges are hiding.

The Futures Market: Is USA at -115 Justified or Overvalued?

Here's the thing about USA at -115: the roster is undeniably loaded. Aaron Judge captains a team managed by Mark DeRosa with Andy Pettitte running the pitching staff. You've got 22 of 30 players with All-Star appearances, a pitching staff headlined by the two reigning Cy Young Award winners in Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, and closers like Mason Miller and Clay Holmes. On paper, this is the most talented team in the field. But paper doesn't win short-format tournaments. The 2023 WBC proved that when the U.S. came within one run of winning it all against Japan. Close isn't the same as cashing a ticket.

At -115, the implied probability sits at 53.5%. In a tournament with single-elimination rounds, where a cold night at the plate or one bad inning from a reliever ends your entire run, that number feels a touch high. The market is pricing in the talent gap, but it's underpricing the variance that comes with a compressed format. When you've only got a handful of games to advance, anything can happen.

The Best Futures Value on the Board: Dominican Republic +400

Captain Manny Machado anchors an infield that is borderline absurd. Juan Soto. Vlad Guerrero Jr. Fernando Tatis Jr. Julio Rodriguez. Junior Caminero. Ketel Marte. Oneil Cruz. Every single one of these guys would be the best player on most national teams, and they're all stacking the same lineup card. Multiple scouts and analysts have called this "arguably the deepest roster in the tournament," and they're right.

At +400, you're getting 4-to-1 on a team that has just as much raw talent as the United States. The DR has historically been one of the strongest WBC programs, and the combination of lineup depth and star power gives them a ceiling that matches or exceeds anybody in the field. If you're playing one WBC future, this is the sharpest number available.

Japan at +350: Defending Champions, But Missing Key Pieces

Japan has won three of the five WBC titles ever played, and the defending champions always deserve respect. Shohei Ohtani is available, but only as a designated hitter, which obviously limits the dual-threat impact that made him so devastating in 2023. The bigger concern for sharps is who's NOT on the roster. Darvish, Sasaki, and Imanaga are all absent, which significantly thins out the pitching depth. Kikuchi and Sugano headline what's available on the mound, but that's a noticeable step down from what Japan brought last time.

At +350, the number isn't terrible for a three-time champion, but the missing pitching arms make it harder to pull the trigger compared to the DR. Japan's baseball infrastructure and tournament experience are real edges, especially in Pool C in Tokyo where they'll have a massive home-crowd advantage. But the pitching questions are legitimate. I'd make Japan closer to a +400 or +450 team this time around, which means there's not enough value at +350 to commit capital here.

Pool-by-Pool Sharp Handicapping Breakdown

Pool A (San Juan): Puerto Rico's Home Cooking

Puerto Rico, Canada, Cuba, Panama, and Colombia. Puerto Rico gets the home-field advantage in San Juan, and that matters more in international baseball than people think. The energy in that stadium is unlike anything in the regular MLB season. With Nolan Arenado on the roster, Puerto Rico has legitimate star power. Cuba is always a wildcard with young prospects, but their lack of MLB-level depth usually catches up to them in the later rounds. Canada has been building their program steadily, but this pool should funnel through Puerto Rico.

Pool B (Houston): The USA Buzzsaw

USA, Mexico, Italy, Great Britain, and Brazil. This is the easiest pool to project. Team USA should cruise through pool play with that roster. The interesting value question is whether Italy can sneak into the second spot. Vinnie Pasquantino playing for Italy gives them a genuine MLB bat, and Italy surprised people in past WBC editions. Mexico always plays with passion, but they're outgunned here. Great Britain and Brazil are filling out the bracket. Sharps should look for pool play matchup props where Italy's individual games could offer plus-money opportunities against Mexico or Great Britain.

Pool C (Tokyo): Japan's Domain With Question Marks

Japan, Korea, Australia, Chinese Taipei, and Czechia. Japan playing in Tokyo is a massive advantage, both logistically and emotionally. The crowd will be deafening. Korea is always dangerous in tournament settings and has legitimate MLB talent. Australia has been improving steadily. Chinese Taipei could spring a surprise in pool play. Japan should advance, but the lack of elite pitching depth could make individual games closer than the market expects.

Pool D (Miami): The Pool of Death

The Dominican Republic and Venezuela are the clear top two, but these two powerhouses having to play each other in pool play introduces an upset variable that doesn't exist in the other pools. Venezuela brings 27 MLB players headlined by Ronald Acuna Jr., Luis Arraez, and Jackson Chourio. That's not a consolation prize roster. That's a team capable of beating anybody on a given night. The Netherlands have a proud WBC tradition, and Israel has legitimate MLB connections in their program. Pool D is where the most volatile betting opportunities will emerge during the tournament.

The Sharp Play: How to Attack the 2026 WBC Futures Market

If you're allocating units to the WBC futures market, here's how I'd structure the play. The Dominican Republic at +400 is the primary position. The combination of roster depth, star-studded lineup, and a price that doesn't reflect their true championship probability makes this the sharpest bet available. You're getting a team with 28 MLB players at 4-to-1 odds, while the team with the exact same number of MLB players (USA) is priced at -115. That gap is too wide.

A secondary play on Venezuela at +1000 is worth a look as a longshot sprinkle. With Acuna, Arraez, and Chourio, they have the offensive firepower to make a run. The +1000 number gives you enough runway to justify a smaller allocation. If they survive Pool D, they've already proven they can beat elite competition, and that momentum matters in short tournaments.

As for USA at -115, there's no reason to lay juice on a tournament favorite in a format with this much variance. The roster is obviously elite, but you're paying a premium for the name on the jersey. Sharp money doesn't chase favorites in tournaments. It identifies the spots where the market is undervaluing talent, and right now, that's the Dominican Republic at +400.

The 2026 World Baseball Classic runs March 5-17 with the championship game at loanDepot Park in Miami. The futures market is going to shift as more roster announcements trickle out and as pool play begins, so getting positioned early at these numbers is critical. Once the first batch of games confirms what we already suspect about the DR's lineup depth, that +400 is going to evaporate quickly.