Spring training is officially underway, pitchers and catchers have reported, and the first full-squad workouts are happening across Arizona and Florida. More importantly for sharp bettors, the offseason is now locked in. Every move has been made. Every roster is taking shape. And the betting market is starting to crystallize around what these teams actually look like heading into 2026.
ESPN just published their final offseason grades for all 30 MLB teams. Here is what those grades actually mean from a handicapping perspective, because the market does not care about letter grades. It cares about expected value.
The Teams That Got Better: Where the Smart Money Is Looking
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers landed the number one free agent on the market in Kyle Tucker, signing him to a four-year, $240 million deal. They also brought in closer Edwin Diaz. Manager Dave Roberts had Tucker and Diaz address the team on their first official workout day, explaining why they chose LA. The answer is obvious: this roster is absurd.
Tucker gives the Dodgers an elite left-handed bat to pair with their already loaded lineup. For sharp bettors, the Dodgers are going to be the heaviest favorites in baseball on a nightly basis. The key is not whether they are good. The key is whether they are good enough to cover the juice. When you are laying -180, -200, -220 on a regular basis, the margin for profit shrinks. The sharps will be looking for spots where the Dodgers are slightly undervalued, back-to-back games, fifth starters, early-season bullpen fatigue.
Sharp Angle: The Dodgers' depth is their biggest asset for bettors. When other superteams have an off night, the bottom of their order disappears. LA's bottom of the order is still better than most teams' middle of the order. Look for value in the early season when the market is still calibrating to this new roster.
Chicago Cubs
The Alex Bregman signing is the one that should change futures odds the most in the NL Central. Bregman is not just a third baseman. He is a culture-changer, a guy who has been in October every year and knows what a winning clubhouse looks like. The Cubs needed someone like that desperately, and they got him.
From a handicapping perspective, the Cubs are interesting because their win total is probably still being undervalued. The public remembers the Cubs missing the playoffs and prices them accordingly. But Bregman plus a healthy rotation could push this team into the low-to-mid 90s in wins. If the win total is sitting in the high 80s, there is value on the over.
Baltimore Orioles
GM Mike Elias reportedly delivered the big offseason that Baltimore needed. The Orioles have a young core that is ready to win now, and the front office finally backed them up with additions. For bettors, the Orioles are the team most likely to exceed market expectations in the AL East because the public still thinks of them as a "young team that is not quite there yet." They are there.
The Teams That Got Worse: Fading Opportunities
San Diego Padres
The Padres lost Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez, and Ryan O'Hearn this offseason. Their payroll went up only $8 million, and their lineup finished 28th in isolated power last year. They re-signed Michael King and brought in Walker Buehler on a minor league deal, but Buehler is a reclamation project coming off a 5.45 ERA with the Red Sox last year before being released in August.
The Padres are going to be a team the public overvalues early. They still have the San Diego brand, Petco Park, and name recognition from their 2024 playoff run. But this is a thinner roster than last year, and the pitching depth beyond their top three starters (Pivetta, King, Musgrove) is a question mark. When the Padres are being priced as -130, -140 favorites at home against average teams, there will be fade value.
Sharp Angle: The Padres are competing with six or more arms for two rotation spots this spring. Buehler has opt-out clauses before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. If the rotation does not settle quickly, early-season unders on Padres totals could have value since the offense lost real production.
Philadelphia Phillies
ESPN's grade warned the Phillies are in danger of "running it back one too many times." Their offseason moves read as maintaining the status quo, which is fine if you believe the 2025 roster was a championship-caliber team. But the NL East got tougher (see: Dodgers adding Tucker, Mets trading for Freddy Peralta), and standing still in a division that is getting better is the same as getting worse.
The Most Interesting Team for Bettors: New York Mets
ESPN called the Mets "the most interesting team to watch in 2026" after capping their offseason overhaul with a trade for ace Freddy Peralta. The Mets are the team most likely to have a dramatic swing in win total from last year. If you are building a futures portfolio, the Mets are the kind of high-variance play that sharps love: a team with enough talent to win 95+ games or enough question marks to win 82.
Spring Training Stories to Monitor for Betting Edges
Dodgers' New Acquisitions Fitting In
Dave Roberts asked Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz to explain to the team why they chose LA. That is a manager who is already managing chemistry, not just talent. How quickly Tucker adjusts to the NL (after years in the AL) and how Diaz handles the transition from Mets closer to Dodgers closer are storylines that will affect early-season pricing.
Stanton's Championship-or-Bust Mentality
Giancarlo Stanton told reporters his Yankees career feels "incomplete" without a World Series title. At 36, Stanton is entering what is almost certainly the final stretch of his time in pinstripes. When a star player is this vocal about urgency, it sometimes translates to early-season intensity that the market does not price in. Yankees early-season run lines could have value if Stanton comes out swinging.
Buehler's Padres Audition
Walker Buehler signed a minor league deal with the Padres worth up to $4 million if he makes the roster and hits all incentives. He has opt-out dates before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. His last seven outings of 2025 featured a 2.53 ERA, which is the number the Padres are betting on rather than the 5.45 season-long mark. Buehler's career World Series stats, 2-0, 0.47 ERA, 24 strikeouts, show what he is capable of at his best. If he wins a rotation spot, the Padres' rotation looks much better than the market currently prices.
Catcher Rankings Signal Sleeper Value
ESPN's Buster Olney published his top 10 catchers for 2026, led by Seattle's Cal Raleigh. The list also featured Detroit's Dillon Dingler and Milwaukee's Drake Baldwin as rising names. For sharp bettors, elite catcher play translates directly to pitching staff performance. Teams with top-tier catchers (Raleigh in Seattle, Patrick Bailey in San Francisco, Austin Wells in New York) often outperform their projected win totals because of the impact catching has on pitching staff ERA.
The Bottom Line for Sharp Bettors
The offseason is done. The rosters are set. The market is starting to harden. The value right now is in finding the gaps between public perception and actual talent. The Cubs, Orioles, and Mets are undervalued. The Padres and Phillies are vulnerable to regression. And the Dodgers are going to be the most juiced favorites in baseball, so find the spots where the public over-adjusts their pricing.
Stay sharp. Opening Day is coming fast.
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