Home / MLB Picks Today / Brewers vs Mets Pick, August 26
Milwaukee is 81-51. New York is 60-72. Robert Stock is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. That last line is why this is the largest play on the August 26 card. A last-place Mets club handing the ball to a starter who has not won a game is the mismatch.
The argument against it is Dustin May at 6-8 with a 4.57 ERA. Laying 59.68 percent behind a 4.57 ERA is a real number. The ticket is not May being an ace. The ticket is Stock being worse, Milwaukee being 36-27 on the road, and Citi Field hosting a team that has already lost 72 games.
| Input | Number |
|---|---|
| Brewers record | 81-51 |
| Mets record | 60-72 |
| May ERA / record | 4.57 / 6-8 |
| Stock ERA / record | 5.40 / 0-2 |
| Price / break even | -148 / 59.68 percent |
| Share of card risk | 42.0 percent |
If May walks a tightrope for four innings and the Mets get to the Milwaukee bullpen, 2.22 units of risk is gone on one game. That is the cost of putting 42 percent of the night on a single moneyline. DraftKings posted Milwaukee at minus 149 as of writing. The ticket is minus 148.