Home / MLB Picks Today / Twins vs Athletics Over 10 Pick, August 26
Twins and Athletics Over 10 at minus 120 for 1.5 units, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Minnesota is 64-69. The Athletics are 52-81. Connor Prielipp is 3-7 with a 5.57 ERA. J.T. Ginn is 8-8 with a 3.60 ERA.
A 10 is not a cheap number. It is the only total on the August 26 card, and it is sitting in the park that has been the loudest run environment in the league for most of the year. Prielipp at 5.57 is the half of the game that has to leak. Ginn at 3.60 is the half that can keep it from turning into 14.
| Input | Number |
|---|---|
| Twins record | 64-69 |
| Athletics record | 52-81 |
| Prielipp ERA / record | 5.57 / 3-7 |
| Ginn ERA / record | 3.60 / 8-8 |
| Price / break even | -120 / 54.55 percent |
| Risk | 1.80 units |
The argument against it is Ginn. If he throws six quiet innings, Prielipp has to be a disaster for a 10 to cash. 1.80 units of risk is the price of needing both lineups to show up in the same game. See the park factors guide for why Sacramento has been pricing like a run environment, not a pitchers' park.