Home / MLB Picks Today / Dodgers vs Braves Pick, August 26
Los Angeles moneyline minus 127 for 1 unit at Truist Park. Roki Sasaki is 5-5 with a 4.42 ERA. AJ Smith-Shawver is 0-0 with a 6.23 ERA. The Dodgers are 80-52 and 40-26 on the road. Atlanta is 77-55 and 43-23 at home, a .652 home mark, which is why this is one unit rather than two.
DraftKings had Los Angeles at minus 119 when this was written. The ticket is minus 127. That is a worse number than the board. The play is still Los Angeles because the Atlanta starter has a 6.23 ERA in a sample that has not produced a win. The size is the tell. One unit is what you bet when the home record is the counterargument you actually believe.
| Input | Number |
|---|---|
| Dodgers record | 80-52 (40-26 road) |
| Braves record | 77-55 (43-23 home) |
| Sasaki ERA / record | 4.42 / 5-5 |
| Smith-Shawver ERA / record | 6.23 / 0-0 |
| Price / break even | -127 / 55.95 percent |
A Smith-Shawver start that looks like 6.23 on paper can still be five innings of contact outs in that park. One unit is already the concession to 43-23 at home.