The Whole Number Costs 56 Cents Less Than The Moneyline

Two plays today, the smallest MLB card in three weeks, and the interesting one is a pricing question rather than a matchup. Seattle is -216 on the full game moneyline against the Athletics. The same opinion at minus 1 on the run line costs -160. That is 56 cents of price given back in exchange for turning a one run Mariners win from a full win into a refund. Quoted as 3 units to win, the ladder puts 4.50 units on the counter and needs 60 percent to break even.

THE CARD

Athletics vs Mariners Run Line Pick

Rays vs Rangers Moneyline Pick

Every price above is the price taken. Records going in: the Athletics 54-86, Seattle 66-74, Tampa Bay 83-56 and Texas 69-71.

THE STAKE LADDER

Units are quoted to win, never to risk. A 2 unit play at minus 160 does not put 2 units on the counter, it puts 3.20 there to collect 2. Two legs, and the ladder looks like this.

Risk by leg

Mariners minus 1, minus 160, 2 units to win. Risk 3.20. That is 71.1 percent of the day on one ticket.
Rays moneyline, minus 130, 1 unit to win. Risk 1.30, or 28.9 percent.

Total risk 4.50 units to collect 3.00. Break even is 4.50 divided by 7.50, which is 60 percent. Leg by leg, minus 160 needs 61.54 percent of the outcomes that are not pushes and minus 130 needs 56.52. On a two leg card the break even is not really a card number at all, because there is no diversification worth the name. One leg is 71 percent of the counter and it decides the day.

WHAT THE 56 CENTS BUYS AND WHAT IT COSTS

This is the whole ticket, so it deserves the arithmetic. The moneyline is -216, which is a 68.35 percent implied number. The whole number run line is -160, a 61.54 percent implied number. The difference is not free. It is the price of moving every one run Seattle win out of the win column and into the refund column.

How often is a Mariners win a one run win? Seattle has 66 wins this season. 45 of them are by two or more runs and 21 are by exactly one. So conditional on Seattle winning, 68.2 percent of the time this ticket cashes in full and 31.8 percent of the time the stake comes back.

Run that through the moneyline's own implied 68.35 percent and the shape is this: roughly 46.6 percent of the time the run line wins, roughly 21.8 percent it pushes, and roughly 31.6 percent it loses. Strip the pushes out and the ticket is winning 59.6 percent of the live outcomes against a 61.54 percent price. On the season baseline alone, this is not a bargain. It is close to fair and it is slightly the wrong side of fair.

The reason to take it anyway is that the season baseline is the wrong denominator tonight, and that is a claim that has to be argued rather than assumed.

THE ARGUMENT AGAINST THE BASELINE

Seattle's margin distribution is a full season figure earned against a full season of opponents. Tonight's opponent is the worst run prevention team in baseball by a distance. The Athletics have allowed 805 runs in 140 games, 5.75 a game, on a 5.45 team ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Second worst in the league is more than half a run better.

The starter is Jack Perkins, 3-10, twelve starts, 95.1 innings, a 6.42 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP and 1.70 home runs per nine. He strikes out 10.29 per nine, which is a real skill and has not saved a single one of his outings. A 1.70 home run rate against a Seattle lineup that has hit 162 of them is the specific mechanism by which a one run game becomes a three run game.

The three most recent meetings between these teams went 9-2, 4-1 and 9-1 to Seattle, all three by two or more. Six meetings this season, Seattle won four, three of those by two or more.

None of that is a large sample and none of it is proof. It is the reason the blowout share tonight should sit above the 68.2 percent season figure rather than at it, and 68.2 was already enough to make the price close to fair.

THE HONEST CASE AGAINST THE BIGGEST LEG

Seattle scores 3.96 runs a game on a .229 team batting average, the lowest in the American League. A team that does not hit for average is a team that scores in bunches or not at all, which cuts both ways on a run line: more blowouts, and also more shutouts.

The starter is the other problem. Kade Anderson has ten major league innings, two starts, a 4.50 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. There is no meaningful read on him. Laying runs behind a pitcher with two career starts is laying runs on a bullpen, and Seattle's staff has allowed 620 runs, 4.43 a game, which is fine and is not dominant.

That is why the leg is two units rather than four. The edge is the opponent, not the home team.

THE SMALL LEG

Tampa Bay at -130 is the best team on the card, 83-56, with the best starter, Shane McClanahan at a 3.19 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a .206 opponent average and 0.72 home runs per nine across 113 innings. The Rays pitch to a 3.78 team ERA, the lowest of the four clubs playing tonight.

It is one unit because the other side is not soft. Cal Quantrill has a 3.01 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over eleven starts, Texas is 38-30 at home and Tampa Bay is 36-31 on the road. Two good starters, a home underdog with a winning home record, and a -130 price. That is a fair fight, and the correct size for a fair fight where you hold the better arm is small.

WHAT A LOSING DAY LOOKS LIKE

Two legs, so the outcome tree is short and worth reading before first pitch.

Both win: plus 3.00 units.
Mariners push, Rays win: plus 1.00.
Mariners push, Rays lose: minus 1.30.
Mariners win, Rays lose: plus 0.70.
Mariners lose, Rays win: minus 2.20.
Both lose: minus 4.50 units.

The line to notice is the fourth one. Winning the big leg and losing the small one still finishes green, and it barely does, plus 0.70. The line under it is the shape of the day: losing the run line while winning the moneyline is minus 2.20, and no realistic second leg on a two play card can fix that. A concentrated ladder is a concentrated ladder whether or not the concentration is deliberate.

TIMING, PLAINLY

Both were logged before first pitch. The earlier game is Tampa Bay at Texas at 8:05 Eastern and the ladder was complete before that. Nothing to disclose.

Yesterday's seven leg card graded 3-4 and lost 5.15 units. The Brewers moneyline cashed 9-5, the Red Sox team total under 4.5 cashed on three Boston runs and the Guardians team total under 3.5 cashed on a shutout. The three unit Rangers moneyline lost 9-2 to the Athletics, which is the leg that made a 3-4 day into a five unit hole, and the Rays minus 1 lost 10-4. Today's card is two legs partly because yesterday's was seven.