One Game At Wrigley Carries 31.6 Percent Of The Risk

Seven plays today, the widest card in a week, and the shape is top heavy in a way worth naming before first pitch. Quoted as 12.5 units to win, the ladder puts 17.18 units on the counter and needs 57.88 percent to break even. The single biggest leg is the Rangers moneyline at 4.65 units of risk. The biggest exposure is not a leg at all, it is one game: a Brewers moneyline and a Cubs team total under stacked on the same nine innings at Wrigley, 5.42 units between them.

THE CARD

Athletics vs Rangers Pick

Brewers vs Cubs Pick

Cubs Team Total Pick

Blue Jays vs Guardians Team Total Pick

Mariners vs Red Sox Team Total Pick

Mets vs Rays Run Line Pick

White Sox vs Astros Total Pick

Every price above is the price taken. Records going in: the Athletics 53-86, Texas 69-70, Milwaukee 86-53, the Cubs 78-61, Toronto 68-71, Cleveland 70-68, Seattle 65-74, Boston 75-64, the Mets 62-77, Tampa Bay 83-55, the White Sox 73-65 and Houston 70-69.

THE STAKE LADDER

Units are quoted to win, never to risk. A 3 unit play at minus 155 does not put 3 units on the counter, it puts 4.65 there to collect 3. Run all seven out and the ladder looks like this.

Risk by leg

Rangers moneyline, minus 155, 3 units to win. Risk 4.65. That is 27.1 percent of the day on one ticket.
Brewers moneyline, minus 151, 2 units to win. Risk 3.02, or 17.6 percent.
Cubs team total under 3.5, minus 120, 2 units to win. Risk 2.40, or 14.0 percent.
Guardians team total under 3.5, minus 137, 1.5 units to win. Risk 2.06, or 12.0 percent.
Red Sox team total under 4.5, minus 130, 1.5 units to win. Risk 1.95, or 11.4 percent.
Rays minus 1, minus 130, 1.5 units to win. Risk 1.95, or 11.4 percent.
White Sox and Astros over 8.5, minus 115, 1 unit to win. Risk 1.15, or 6.7 percent.

Total risk 17.18 units to collect 12.50. Break even is 17.18 divided by 29.68, which is 57.88 percent. Leg by leg the prices need 60.78 percent at minus 155, 60.16 at minus 151, 54.55 at minus 120, 57.81 at minus 137, 56.52 at minus 130 twice, and 53.49 at minus 115. The two moneylines are the two steepest asks on the card and they are also the two biggest tickets, which is the pattern to notice.

WHERE THE RISK ACTUALLY SITS

The three biggest tickets, Texas, Milwaukee and the Cubs under, are 58.6 percent of the counter. The other four combined are 41.4 percent, and none of them is bigger than 2.06.

The concentration that matters is by game, not by leg. The Brewers moneyline and the Cubs team total under are one opinion bought two ways. If Jacob Misiorowski does what he has done in 21 of 25 starts and holds Chicago to three or fewer, both tickets are alive and the moneyline is very likely cashing on top of the under. If the Cubs put up a four run inning on him, the under is dead in that half inning and the moneyline is fighting from behind at the same moment. 31.6 percent of the day rides on one pitcher's night, and there is no hedge between the two tickets because they fail together.

That is a deliberate choice, and the reason is the size of the edge being bought. A 0.75 WHIP over 151 innings is not a matchup, it is an outlier, and the Cubs lineup scoring 5.37 a game is why the under is priced at only minus 120 rather than minus 160. The stack buys the same outlier twice at two different prices.

The other five legs are five different parks, five different starters and four different bet types. Three team total unders on one card will feel correlated on a hot night, but a Boston under, a Cleveland under and a Chicago under share no pitcher, no lineup and no weather, and one of them is a wider door at 4.5 than the other two.

THE BIGGEST LEG IS A BET ON THE OTHER DUGOUT

Texas at minus 155 is not a bet on Cody Bradford, who has made five starts. It is a bet against the worst run prevention in baseball. The Athletics have allowed 803 runs in 139 games, 5.78 a game, on a 5.48 team ERA. Jacob Lopez carries a 4.82 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP and opponents have averaged 6.16 runs in his nineteen starts. Texas has won three straight and is 38-29 at home.

The honest case against the size is the price. Minus 155 needs 60.78 percent and Texas is a 69-70 team. Lopez has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last five starts. The three units are on the gap in run prevention, 4.40 against 5.78, which is the widest between any two teams on tonight's board. That is a real edge. It is also the steepest price on the card, and both things are true.

WHAT A LOSING DAY LOOKS LIKE

Worth doing before the games rather than after. Seven legs and the outcomes that matter are these.

All seven win: plus 12.50 units.
Both Wrigley tickets lose, the other five win: 8.50 minus 5.42, a gain of 3.08.
Both Wrigley tickets win, the other five lose: 4.00 minus 11.76, a loss of 7.76.
Texas loses, the other six win: 9.50 minus 4.65, a gain of 4.85.
Texas and both Wrigley tickets lose, the other four win: 5.50 minus 10.07, a loss of 4.57.
All seven lose: minus 17.18 units.

The second and fourth lines are the case for a seven leg card. Losing the biggest game outright still finishes green if the rest of the ladder holds, and losing the biggest single leg finishes well green. The fifth line is the case against it: the three tickets that are 58.6 percent of the counter can all miss and take the day with them while four winners look on.

TIMING, PLAINLY

All seven were logged before first pitch. The earliest game on the card is Athletics at Rangers at 2:35 Eastern and the ladder was complete before that. Nothing to disclose.

Yesterday's four leg card graded 3-1 and made 0.88 units. The two whole number run lines cashed with room, Cleveland 6-1 and Texas 8-5, and the Rays moneyline cashed 6-2. The three unit first five under at PNC Park was buried under sixteen runs through five innings, the worst first five of the season for a ticket priced on two starters near a 1.10 WHIP. Three winners and a green day of less than a unit, because the loser was the biggest ticket. The same shape can happen today and the ladder is built knowing it.