Thirteen games on the board for a Monday in early April, and the market is already handing us a couple of gifts. We've got a pitching mismatch in Boston that screams situational edge, a future Hall of Famer carving up a rebuilding roster in Anaheim, a national TV showcase between the two hottest clubs in the sport, and a deGrom comeback story colliding with one of the most unlucky starters in baseball. Let's get into it.
This is the game I circled the second I saw the pitching matchup. Brandon Woodruff on the bump for Milwaukee, carrying a tidy 1-0 record, 3.60 ERA, and a ridiculous 0.80 WHIP through his early season starts. He's locating his fastball, his cutter is diving, and he's punching out six per outing. This is a guy who looks fully healthy and fully locked in.
Now look at what's standing across from him. Brayan Bello has been an absolute disaster to start the year: 0-1, 9.64 ERA, 2.36 WHIP, just 2 strikeouts. Those are numbers that get you DFA'd in Triple-A. He can't miss bats, he can't control the zone, and Milwaukee's lineup is patient enough to make him pay for it. The Brewers are sitting at 7-2 on the season. The Red Sox are 2-7, the worst record in the American League. Everything about this game screams one-sided.
Here's the thing about this price: you're getting Milwaukee at -115 against a pitcher who can't get through four innings without loading the bases. The Brewers are one of the best-run organizations in baseball, they're playing with house money on the road, and they've got the massive pitching edge. I love this spot. The -115 is the kind of line that exists because the public still thinks the Red Sox are a destination team. They're not. They're 2-7 for a reason.
Chris Sale continues to do things that shouldn't be possible at this stage of his career. Through two starts, the man is rocking a 0.75 ERA with a 0.583 WHIP and 9 strikeouts. He just became the fastest pitcher in MLB history to reach 2,500 career strikeouts by innings pitched. Let that sink in. We're watching a legitimate Cy Young campaign unfold in real time, and the books are only laying -156.
The Angels are going with Jose Soriano on the other side, and while Soriano has some intriguing stuff, he's a young arm trying to survive against an Atlanta lineup that can jump on mistakes early and often. Sale in this kind of form against a middling lineup in a hitter-neutral park? The juice at -156 is more than fair. Sharps aren't going to be scared off by that price when the pitching gap is this enormous.
If you're a moneyline bettor, you lay it. If you want value, you can look at the run line, because Sale has the type of stuff right now where five-run wins aren't unusual. This is one of those spots where the name value actually matches the performance. Sale is dealing, and the Angels don't have the bats to keep up.
National TV gets the best possible matchup to close out the evening, and this one has layers. The Dodgers are 7-2, rolling through the early season like everyone expected. They're sending Jordan Wrobleski to the mound, a young lefty who's still finding his footing in the big leagues. On the other side, Max Scherzer is making his Toronto debut, and the early returns have been impressive: a 1.50 ERA in his first start as a Blue Jay.
The Blue Jays are 4-5, trying to build some momentum behind their revamped rotation. Scherzer at home, under the lights, on national TV? That's a dangerous dog. Mad Max lives for these moments. He's 40 years old and still throwing with the intensity of a guy trying to earn a roster spot.
The O/U at 9 is interesting. The Dodgers can score runs against anybody, and Wrobleski is going to give up some hard contact. But Scherzer's ability to keep it close means this game could go either way. The Dodgers are the right side, but I wouldn't touch them at -143 with a young arm on the mound in a hostile environment. If there's value here, it's on the total leaning over, given the youth on the mound for LA and the Dodgers' firepower.
Logan Gilbert vs Jacob deGrom. On paper, this should be appointment television. In reality, both guys are working through early season rust. deGrom posted a 5.79 ERA in his debut, giving up 3 earned in 4.2 innings. Not vintage deGrom by any stretch, but the stuff was still there, the velo was there, and you have to expect a bounceback from a talent like that.
Gilbert, meanwhile, carries a 6.75 ERA, but his underlying numbers tell a completely different story. His xERA sits at 2.27, which is elite. He's been the victim of some terrible batted ball luck and sequencing. The results haven't caught up to the process yet, but when they do, Gilbert is going to reel off a string of dominant starts.
I'm interested in the under 7.5 here. Two arms with elite ceilings, a 7.5 total that assumes offense, and a pair of starters who should settle in as April progresses. Gilbert's xERA screaming positive regression makes Seattle's plus money intriguing as well. This is a sit-and-watch game for most bettors, but there's a lean on the under if you trust the stuff over the surface stats.
Michael Wacha vs Tanner Bibee in a sneaky AL Central showdown. The total at 7 screams under consideration. Both clubs play sound defense, and these two staffs have been efficient early. Cleveland at home is the slight lean on the ML, but the number isn't fat enough to get excited about.
Brandon Williamson vs Janson Junk. Yes, that's a real name, and no, this isn't a marquee matchup. Miami is the home favorite at -136, and Cincinnati is getting plus money. The Reds' bats can show up on any given night, and +102 with Williamson on the bump is worth a look if you like chasing small dog value early in the season.
German Marquez against Reid Chandler. Pittsburgh is 6-3 and tied atop the NL Central with Milwaukee. The Pirates at home as -143 favorites show the market respects what they've been doing. San Diego getting plus money on the road isn't terrible, but PNC Park has been rocking and Pittsburgh's pitching has been legit. Lean home side.
Andre Pallante vs Zach Littell in a near pick'em. This is a stay-away game for me. Neither team has separated themselves, the total at 8 feels about right, and there's no clear edge on either side. Sometimes the sharpest move is no move at all.
Baltimore laying -149 on the road against Chicago's Wes Taylor. The White Sox are still rebuilding, and Baltimore has too much talent top to bottom. The Orioles should handle business here, and the price is manageable for a team that should win 95+ games this season.
Casey Mize vs Joe Ryan in a low-total AL Central matchup. The O/U at 7 is a nod to two pitchers who can suppress offense when they're on. Minnesota at home laying -122 is fair, and this has the look of a 3-2 or 4-3 final. The under is the sharpest play on this one.
Houston traveling to Coors Field always creates chaos. The Astros are 6-4, and while they're the far superior team, Coors has a way of leveling things out. Seth Bolton vs Ryan Feltner at altitude with a 10.5 total. The over is the trendy play, but don't sleep on Colorado's ability to keep it weird at home. Houston is the right side, but -207 at Coors is steep.
Here's a sneaky one to close the slate. Andrew Painter makes his second big league start after a dazzling debut: 1.69 ERA, 8 strikeouts in 5.1 innings. This kid has electric stuff, and the Phillies have been waiting for him to arrive. Adrian Houser on the other side for San Francisco. Philly at -120 with a young arm generating this kind of buzz is a price that could disappear quickly. If Painter's debut wasn't a fluke, and the stuff says it wasn't, this is a comfortable road favorite play.
Jameson Taillon vs Shane McClanahan was already in progress at the time of this report. Check final scores and our Daily Hammer page for any late plays that emerged from the early action.