How to Beat the MLB Total Runs Market Across All Games
The Grand Salami is one of baseball's most unique betting markets. Instead of betting on the total runs in a single game, you're betting on the combined total runs scored across ALL games on a given day. On a typical 15-game MLB slate, the Grand Salami might be set at 130.5 runs. If you bet the over, you need 131+ total runs across all 15 games to win.
This market attracts sharp bettors because it allows you to leverage your knowledge across the entire league rather than relying on the outcome of a single game. One blowout can cover for a pitchers' duel. The variance smooths out, and skill becomes more important than luck.
Individual game totals can be swung by a single 3-run homer or a surprise rain delay. The Grand Salami aggregates across 15+ games, meaning your edge compounds while variance decreases. If you correctly identify that a slate leans over due to weather and matchups, you don't need every game to go over, you just need the aggregate to exceed the number.
Sportsbooks calculate the Grand Salami by summing the individual game totals and then making adjustments. Here's the process:
If there are 15 games with totals of 8.5, 9, 8, 9.5, etc., the book adds them all up. Let's say that comes to 129.5 runs.
The book then adjusts based on:
The final Grand Salami might land at 130.5 or 131, close to but not exactly the sum of individual totals. This discrepancy is where edges can exist.
15-game slate with these game totals:
9 + 8.5 + 8.5 + 9 + 8 + 9.5 + 8.5 + 9 + 8 + 8.5 + 9 + 8.5 + 9 + 8.5 + 9 = 130 total
Book sets Grand Salami at: 130.5 (-110)
Your job: Find if the adjustments should push it higher or lower than 130
The single most important factor in Grand Salami betting is the aggregate quality of starting pitchers. A slate with 6 aces is going to produce fewer runs than a slate with 6 bullpen games.
| Slate Type | Expected Impact | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| Multiple aces (3+ elite starters) | -5 to -10 runs from average | Under |
| Average slate (mix of starters) | No adjustment | Neutral |
| Bullpen games (2+ openers) | +4 to +8 runs from average | Over |
| Spot starters (multiple call-ups) | +5 to +10 runs from average | Over |
Unlike individual game totals where one park's weather matters, Grand Salami bettors need to assess weather league-wide:
+0.3 runs per game
+0.5 runs per game
Void risk (bet cancels)
-0.4 runs per game
When 8 of 15 games are outdoors in hot weather with favorable wind, the cumulative effect can add 3-5 runs to expected scoring. This is often not fully reflected in the Grand Salami line.
See our complete bullpen analysis guide for deeper insight.
The day after a heavy bullpen usage day league-wide (often Sundays after long series), scoring tends to spike. Tired relievers give up more runs. Check which teams are on the back end of 4-game series or played extras recently.
Teams rest stars strategically, often on day games after night games or before off days. When multiple teams are running "B" lineups, scoring drops. Count how many projected lineups are missing key bats.
Monday slates often feature rested bullpens (after Sunday off-days) but also lineups with rested stars. These factors tend to cancel out. The real edges are on Thursdays (after heavy Wednesday usage) and Sundays (day games after Saturday nights, lots of tired arms).
Before betting any Grand Salami, go through this checklist:
| Factor | Over Signal | Under Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Starting pitchers | Multiple openers/spot starters | 3+ aces on the mound |
| Bullpen status | League-wide exhaustion | Fresh arms everywhere |
| Weather | Heat + wind out in most parks | Cold + wind in conditions |
| Lineups | Full lineups league-wide | Multiple rest days |
| Park factors | Games at Coors, GABP, etc. | Games at Oracle, T-Mobile |
| Day of week | Thursday, Sunday | Monday, Tuesday |
Assign +1 for each over signal and -1 for each under signal. If your score is +3 or higher, the over has value. If -3 or lower, the under has value. Neutral scores (-2 to +2) mean no edge, skip the bet.
Thursday, 14-game slate
Starting pitchers: 2 openers (bullpen games) → +1
Bullpen status: Heavy Sunday usage still lingering → +1
Weather: 80°+ in 9 parks, wind out at Wrigley → +1
Lineups: Only 2 notable rest days → 0
Park factors: Coors and GABP both active → +1
Day of week: Thursday → +1
Total Score: +5 → Strong Over Signal
Grand Salami lines move based on betting action, and tracking this movement reveals where sharp money is going.
Understanding reverse line movement is crucial for Grand Salami success.
If the public is betting over but the line moves down, sharps are on the under. This is especially valuable in Grand Salami markets because the public tends to be biased toward overs (they want action and runs). When you see the line drop despite over money, the under has value.
Add up all individual game totals yourself. If the sum is 131 but the Grand Salami is set at 128.5, the book is anticipating unders or has information you don't. Conversely, if the sum is 129 and the Grand Salami is 131.5, the book expects overs. Bet against discrepancies when your analysis disagrees with the book's adjustment.
For Grand Salami bets to have action, ALL scheduled games must be completed. If even one game is rained out, postponed, or suspended, the entire Grand Salami bet is voided and your stake is returned. This is crucial:
Extra innings count toward the Grand Salami total. A 14-inning game that produces 12 runs helps the over more than a 9-inning game that produces 8. However, extra innings are unpredictable and shouldn't be factored into your pre-game analysis.
Grand Salami odds typically range from -120 to +110 on either side. Standard is -110 both ways. If you see -130 on the over and +100 on the under, the book is heavily shading toward over bettors, which might indicate under value.
When the Rockies are home, the Grand Salami typically sees an extra 2-3 runs baked in. But the market sometimes overcorrects. If it's a cold night game at Coors with an ace pitching, the "Coors bump" might be overdone. Conversely, a day game in August at Coors with journeyman starters can exceed even the inflated expectations.
Day games tend to score slightly more than night games (hitter visibility, no marine layers). On slates with 8+ day games, look for over value. On slates dominated by West Coast night games (especially Oracle, Petco, T-Mobile), the under might have more value than the book suggests.
Interleague games often feature unfamiliar pitcher-batter matchups, which historically slightly favor hitters. A slate heavy with interleague games might have marginal over value not captured by the market.
September call-ups mean more unproven arms and expanded rosters. Scoring tends to increase in September as tired pitching staffs face fresh minor league hitters. The Grand Salami often doesn't fully adjust for this phenomenon early in the month.
To improve your Grand Salami betting, track these metrics:
| Data Point | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Number of games in slate | Variance changes with sample size |
| Your pre-game score | Refine your scoring system over time |
| Opening line vs. closing line | Track how often you agree with sharps |
| Sum of individual totals vs. Grand Salami | Identify when books adjust too much or too little |
| Actual total vs. posted line | Calculate your edge over time |
| Day of week | Find patterns in when overs/unders hit |
Grand Salami betting requires patience. With roughly 180 days of MLB action and many days offering no edge, you might only find 40-50 quality bets per season. Track your results over 100+ bets before drawing conclusions about your system.
| Situation | Lean | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| 3+ aces on the mound | Under | Medium |
| 2+ bullpen games | Over | High |
| Heat wave (85°+) in 8+ parks | Over | Medium |
| Cold snap (<55°) in 6+ parks | Under | Medium |
| Thursday (post-Wednesday tired arms) | Over | Medium |
| Monday (fresh bullpens) | Under | Low-Medium |
| Coors active + 2 other hitter parks | Over | Medium |
| Multiple West Coast night games | Under | Low-Medium |
| Line drops despite over money | Under (sharp signal) | High |
| Sum of totals vs. Grand Salami: 3+ run gap | Bet the discrepancy | Medium-High |
MLB Betting Guide | Totals Strategy | Weather Impact | Starting Pitcher Analysis | Public vs Sharp Money